Monthly Archives: May 2012

Wednesday, May 30th, Euro-dollar update


the 1.2424 second daily target was hit on the Euro (just 1 pip above in the Euro FX currency futures). Find my two new short setups here.

Have a great day!

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Posts moved on Twitter (@fibstalker)

Hello all,

due to space limitation on this WordPress blog the links to my articles (posted on Scribd) will be given through my Twitter account.

Find and follow me:  @fibstalker

Thank you!


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Tuesday, May 22nd Euro-dollar update

An update for the Euro-dollar on the 4-hour chart is provided in the following.

The first level of resistance indicated in last Sunday’s analysis at 1.2823 pushed the Euro down. The downwards violation of the 1.2764 level makes now very possible a retest of the 1.2729 level. Stops related to this level should now be at break/even.

Below 1.2709 the bearish targets at 1.2562 and 1.2427, generated by the short setup at the 1.2823 area, would be triggered.

Thus we are in a situation in which prices are suspended between a 4-hour long setup and a daily short. Since  the daily timeframe is higher and more important than the 4-hour timeframe and the weekly trend is bearish we would lend towards a continuation of shorts. However, we will need to wait and see how price is going to resolve this situation, without expectations.

It is important to notice that if prices dip below 1.2709, the 1.2640 area could offer support again.


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Monday, May 21th 4-hour Euro-dollar update

An update on the 4-hour chart for the Euro-dollar.

The 1.2729 level provided support to prices for a long trade with stop-loss below 1.2709.

Two new targets have been identified at 1.2854 and 1.2919. Those will be confirmed on an upward violation of the 1.2780 level (which hasn’t happened yet).

It is important to notice that, after reaching the first target at 1.2854 (if price gets there), if price exceeds the 1.2865 level, a new retracement could take place bringing prices to the 1.2750 level. That would represent a new long entry (to be analyzed if the scenario takes place)

Above 1.2865 the Euro-dollar will be confronted with higher levels of resistance at 1.2966, 1.3000 and 1.3071.

Above 1.3172 the Euro-dollar will probably continue higher to retest the 1.3450 area.

The daily and 4-hour trends are bullish, however the weekly trend is still bearish. So it is in such a context that the current move higher must be considered.

Great trading.




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Week ending Sunday, May 20th Euro-dollar complete analysis

Find the week ending Sunday, May 20th Euro-dollar complete analysis here (PDF format)

Below is a summary of the trends in the different  timeframes and trading recommendations. Please read the disclaimer before continuing.


Weekly: Trend: bullish; First target: 1.22340 (EUR/USD) and 1.2254 (@EC); Second target: 1.1602 (EUR/USD) and 1.1633 (@EC)

Daily: Trend: bullish to the next level of resistance; Levels of resistance (areas): 1.29606, 1.29887, 1.30636 (EUR/USD) and 1.2965, 1.3000, 1.3070  (@EC)

4-hour:  Trend: bullish to the next failure of the Fibonacci sequence; Possible inversion if these levels are violated on the down side: 1.27535 (EUR/USD), 1.2756 (@EC)

Trading recommendations

 (1) Should price fall below 1.27535 (EUR/USD), 1.2756 (@EC) before it reaches the 1.28178 (EUR/USD), 1.2823 (@EC) levels, then it is possible to trade the euro-dollar short:

Direction = Short (sell)

Entry price (area)= 1.28128-1.28333 (EUR/USD), 1.2818 – 1.2837 (@EC)

Stop-loss=above 1.28543 (EUR/USD) , 1.2864 (@EC)

Target 1 = 1.25615 (EURUSD), 1.2564 (@EC)

Target 2 = 1.24262 (EURUSD), 1.2428 (@EC)

Risk = 42,2 pip (EUR/USD), 47 pip (@EC)

Gain target 1 = 251,3 pip (EUR/USD), 254 pip (@EC), Reward/Risk 1 = 5,95 (EUR/USD),  5,4 (@EC)

Gain target 2 = 386,6 pip (EUR/USD), 390 pip (@EC), Reward/Risk 2 = 9,16 (EUR/USD), 8.4 (@EC)

(2) Else, wait for price to keep moving on the upside and violate the 1.28591 (EUR/USD), 1.2864 (@EC) level, for a further move higher (entry to be timed in the near future, if that happens).

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S&P500 e-mini fails its weekly long and likely to have started a retracement

In the end the S&P500 e-mini failed its weekly long, following the Euro.

The 61% line was held by the S&P500 e-mini contract to the tick, but the SPX index violated the corresponded level.  Therefore my working assumption for the coming weeks is that the weekly long levels have failed and the S&P500 is ready for a retracement into the 1376 area where new shorts should be initiated if participation on the downside shows up.

In the coming days I expect the S&P 500 e-mini to move higher.

Euro daily, retracement on the way

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US stocks watchlist for May 15th

This is the list of US stocks I will have on my watchlist today: AVP,KO, CVS, DOW, XOM, HON, IBM, PFE, SO, TWX, WMB, WMT, CELG, CTSH, DISCA, FAST, FISV, GOOG, LRCX, LNCR, MRVL, PCAR, PDCO, PAYX, QCOM, SNDK, YHOO.

I will look for bottoms of bases and triangles retest.

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Next Euro targets, support and resistance levels

The Euro keeps sliding and hit another short target at the 1.2820 area. If it started a retracement today, it would stop at one of the following levels, to watch closely: 1.2891, 1.2948 or 1.3057. It would then likely resume a move lower.

If the Euro continues sliding it has two more levels of support below current prices where it it is likely to stop: the 1.2685 target and the 1.2634 previous low support. If it gets there we should see a retracement on the daily chart bringing price back into the 1.2820-40 area.


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Stocks on my watchlist for the week of May, 14th-18th



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Trading plans for US Stocks in the Nasdaq 100 (week May, 14th-18th)

The following stocks, entries of the Nasdaq 100, show high-probability long setups: BBBY, CMVT, EXPE, ESRX, GILD, LBTYA, MNST, NVDA (riskier)

If the S&P500 index holds its weekly long level most of these stocks will move higher from here. Even if the S&P500 index fails the weekly long level, we will anyway get a reaction higher, but some of these setups may fail.

Find below the complete trading plans with entry price, stop-loss price, target(s) price, reward/risk, reliability and probability to hit target.

I will check the cumulative results in the coming days/weeks… (click on images to enlarge).

Disclaimer: Setups/trades for educational purpose only, not intended as trading advice. Please read the full disclaimer here.


Entry price: 71.05 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 68.86 (stop market); Target(1) price: 75.54 (limit order); Reward/Risk(1): 2.13;  Target(2) price: 80.11 (limit order); Reward/Risk(2): 4.12

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

BBBY, week May 14th-18th


Entry price: 6.49 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 6.41 (stop market); Target price: 6.81 (limit order); Reward/Risk: 4

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

CMVT, week May 14th-18th


Entry price: 39.75 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 38.77 (stop market); Target(1) price: 45.88 (limit order); Reward/Risk(1): 6.26;  Target(2) price: 49.07 (limit order); Reward/Risk(2): 9.51

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

EXPE, week May, 14th-18th


Entry price: 54.68 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 54.16 (stop market); Target price: 62.10 (limit order); Reward/Risk: 14.27

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

ESRX, week May, 14th-18th


Entry price: 50.59 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 50.19 (stop market); Target price: 56.99 (limit order); Reward/Risk: 16

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

GILD, week May, 14th-18th


Entry price: 50.02 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 49.71 (stop market); Target price: 51.83 (limit order); Reward/Risk: 5.84

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

LBTYA, week May, 14th-18th


Entry price: 69.07 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 67.68 (stop market); Target(1) price: 77.71 (limit order); Reward/Risk(1): 6.22;  Target(2) price: 82.19 (limit order); Reward/Risk(2): 9.44

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

MNST, week May, 14th-18th


Entry price: 12.9 (limit order);  Stop-loss price: 12.7 (stop market); Target price: 14.06 (limit order); Reward/Risk: 5.8

Reliability: 87% ; Target probability rate: 63%

Note: this setup is riskier as price could retest recent lows

NVDA, week May, 14th-18th

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