For some people what I am about to present could seem a reach, and maybe it is. Indeed a few things need to happen to consider this scenario valid, but this does not scare us from having a template to anticipate (not expect!) price moves in the Euro.
Hereunder is my idea for what is coming next. For this to happen we need:
1) the 1.2910 level to be broken on the downside (this confirms bears are actually in control)
2) the 1.2820-30 area to keep acting as a support on its second test (this does not happen very often because the 2nd test is usually the dangerous test and price can break lower)
3) the 20-day SMA flattens out and starts turning lower, and acts as resistance.
If all these conditions are satisfied, in the above picture above I have indicated a potential scenario that could play out in the coming days. Price is already coming down and tomorrow we could witness whether or not condition 1) will be satisfied.
Be careful in referencing this scenario as anticipation should not translate into expectation. I will follow up on this scenario.
Have a good evening.