Ford Motor (F) video analysis, December 17th 2012 (English Language)

Hello traders,

I have recorded a video-analysis for Ford Motor (F), a widely followed and highly participated stock traded on the NYSE. Hereunder is my video review:

The stock has long-term support at around 10 and recently such support broke the sequence of measured moves short on the weekly timeframe. On the larger timeframe bullish Program Trading and bulls professional traders are firmly in control. On the other side of things Program Trading sees resistance at the 13.80 area.

On the smaller daily timeframe we can clearly see a sequence of measured moves long started at August lows. The close support levels are at 10.45 with a first target at 12.10. There is also inner support to which we have witnessed participation starting from Friday afternoon. This support level is at 11.00 with a target at 12. Today price is following up on that initial participation we witnessed at the end of last week.

I do not expect price to come back to retest the 11 support area, but rather a continuation from present prices, so it is important to participate on the long side from the current levels with a stop below 10.85-80. I also don’t see anything at the moment stopping price from reaching the 13.90 resistance level, a profit taking level too.

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4 Comments

Filed under English language, Stocks, Trading Plan

4 responses to “Ford Motor (F) video analysis, December 17th 2012 (English Language)

  1. Q

    Now that ford was retraced back to around 12.10, grinded to around 13. Do you see a return to the 14.30 level or possibly even much higher? It looks like a cup and handle pattern is forming and could drive this stock to the 16 to 18 range if the breakout it initiated. What are your thoughts?

    • Hello Q, thanks for stopping by and for your comment.
      Ford failed the sequence of measured moves higher on the daily chart and is definitely under-performing the general market. The 13.20 is a resistance level and if price stays below it a good short would be at around 13.10 with a stop above 13.50 bringing price into the 11.60 level.
      Above 13.50 we can return back to the 13.90 area of resistance and find sellers again. But if price continues higher the target would be the 15.40 area. I consider current support at 12 a bit dodgy because it come from a non-valid trace, i.e. a retrace that Program Trading would not take into consideration.
      Unfortunately the situation is still unclear. Price would have found support at 11.60 I would be more prone to think that last week’s rally had legs.
      But I cannot.
      Hope this helps.
      Cheers
      G.

      • q

        Thanks for the comments. The more I research this, the more I see a potential cup and handle pattern forming. I felt it was a strong move this week to get above 13.20 and settle around 13.45. However, the potential major moves could be yet to come. The technicals look good if it can recapture 14, the fundamentals look good with strong Jan/Feb sales. There Asia business seems to be doing much better. The concerns seem to be losses in their European business and the effect of higher gas prices; seems to be old news and already priced in. Granted the market looks overbought, Ford has underperformed the market this year. Housing/autos seem to be very cyclical. With all of that said, I still think there is a potential breakout to 16-18.

        In addition, I see a major cup and handle pattern forming on facebook. It may test the lows 26s next week or even 25.50. However, if that holds- and there is a bounce to 29-30, I think the breakout potential is there to possible 32-35+.

        As noted, these two stocks have seemed to underperformed the broad market this year. So, possibly they will perform well when the market pulls back a little. We will see. Two very similar patterns forming and will be interesting to see if they develop.

        What are your thoughts?

      • Hi Q,
        the analysis has not changed since last week. I do not consider fundamentals in my analysis. These are highly participated stocks on which Program Trading is active…
        Good luck
        Cheers
        G.

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