Yes, past price patterns can be used to predict the future (AAPL), January 24th 2013 (English Language)

Hello traders,

in a post published on November 19th, 2012 I had put a simple question: “Can past price patterns be used to predict the future?“. The answer is a resounding “yes”, as anticipated in November. Let me prove it.

The reason I had indicated to support the statement is that the psychology of traders does not change, and nowadays such psychology is captured by the trading rules adopted by Program Trading on most traded stocks, and used in my trading method. In that article I applied the trading method to Apple (ticker: AAPL) and Google (ticker: GOOG), two high volume and highly participated stocks traded on the Nasdaq and gave a short setup and target for AAPL. In the companion video I compared Apple price action to Google past price action, I recommend you watch the video before moving forward so you can get a background.

Today AAPL price got to the target I have indicated in the trading plan shared on November 19th. Hereunder you can find a new video I have just recorded with the new analysis for Apple and where I see price going forward.

Here below in the picture is the trading plan for Apple going forward. The price of this stock just got into the 453 area, which is an important level of support. If participation of longs will be capable of pushing price higher above 540 (1), then the support level will be confirmed and should hold a retest of the 453 area, in case it takes place.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan going forward, January 24th, 2013

Apple Inc. (AAPL) trading plan going forward, January 24th, 2013 (click to enlarge)

In the above picture I am also showing a potential move for Apple, if the market keeps moving higher into the summer. I like forecasting price (watch here Bank of America price forecast compared to the actual move). The forecast is not showing some random levels, but came out from reasoning on the levels Program Trading is supposed to act and participate on.

Moving back to the Apple trading plan (see picture above), first of all we need to confirm support. As written above such confirmation will come with a price above 540. After that, we could see a retracement into the 495 or higher (such retracement could be shallower if participation is strong).

Should price keep moving higher The 577 area could oppose resistance and we could get some sort of retracement and profit taking (2). This retracement could be deeper than showed, into the 513 area.

Finally, should price be capable of moving above 608 (3) the target of the weekly extension long showing support at 453 would also be confirmed. This long trade target is quite substantial at the 820 area, an potential 80% gain.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

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Filed under Articles, English language, Stocks

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