this morning I worked on a trading plan for the Aussie, i.e. the Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar and I am sharing it with you in this post.
Please find attached the video-analysis recorded in the morning for AUD/USD for today January 29th, 2013:
The forex pair could have interrupted its sequence of measured moves lower, so I believe it’s due for a larger retracement higher.
However the levels around 1.0330-80 (see picture below) never traded and this has me worried because there is where professionals and Program Trading would participate on the long side.
So I assume what it is going to unfold is just short covering and we have more downside (Scenario 1 below, is the more probable for me). These are the 2 scenarios I could identify in the short-term and going forward:
Scenario 1. If price sees 1.0430 area that would be a good entry with a stop below 1.0410. 1st target is at 1.0480 area, right a resistance. However, it is better to wait for confirmation before getting involved.
Scenario 2. Only if price moves above 1.0520 I will give bulls credibility. In that case price could dip once again into the 1.0460-80 area and then continue higher
A good long opportunity is unfolding here. Please let me have your thoughts. Thank you.
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