Monthly Archives: March 2013

This weekend, March 17th 2013, in my free weekly Newsletter (English Language)

Hello all,

in this post I am providing an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter I am going to send out on Sunday.

 

Before I continue I want to take the chance to make an important announcement:

My new eBook: “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior” will be out on Tuesday, March the 19th 2013.

I will make it freely available for download upon registration in the ‘eBooks and Papers‘ page on the Blog.

 

This is the content of my Newsletter I will send out on Sunday, March 17th:

  • FOREX – Week end video review of the forex EUR/USD cross (English & Italian)
  • FOREX – FibStalker viewpoint on Currencies: weekend review of GPB/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & USD/JPY (sorry, English only)
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Plan for the Euro FX currency futures going forward (English & Italian)
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Plan for the S&P500 index going forward (English & Italian)
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Plan for the Dollar index going forward (English & Italian)
  • FUTURES – FibStalker View on Futures: weekend review and forecast of Dollar Index, Euro-Dollar and S&P500 futures (sorry, English only)
  • STOCKS – FibStalker View on Stocks: weekend review of General Electric (ticker: GE) (sorry, video in English only)
  • What am I working on? (English & Italian)

I put every effort I can into offering newsletter content free of mistakes and both in English and Italian languages. However some articles or reviews will only be in English (or Italian) and, from time to time, there will be refuses, so I ask you to be patient. Anyway, with time I will try to have cleaner content available in both languages .

I will only post timely and detailed updates of trading plans in my free newsletter. Register for free here.

If you like this blog, please recommend it to your friends. If you want it to be better, please, leave me a feedback (comment below).

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend to use this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks.

Thank you

Have a great week end.

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Filed under Dollar Index, Euro FX setups and trades, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Stocks, Trading Plan, Weekly review

Euro-Dollar Analysis & Forecast, March 15th 2013 (English Language)

Hello traders,

Here below please find attached the video-analysis of the Euro FX currency futures for today March 15th:

By piercing on the upside the level I have indicated yesterday,i.e. 1.3020, price confirmed the 1.2900 area of support. It does not mean that area could not be retested, but with a confirmation, a potential retest should now hold.

The 1.3010 extension long setup on the 4-hour chart held yesterday and brough price into the 1.3060 area (1st target) and then the 1.3080 area (2nd target). Next support and long entry now at 1.3075.

Hereunder are the two scenarios (refer to the below picture):

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart - March 15th, 2013

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart – March 15th, 2013

Scenario 1. If the 1.3066 level is pierced on the downside there are two important level to watch where we could see bounces. The first level is 1.3015-20 area, while the second is the 1.2980 area. We don’t know where price will stop and reverse. If we get this move lower now this is will be the opportunity for Program Trading to establish or add to longs. If we don’t get the retrace now, we will eventually have a retrace. So don’t rush to longs. (notice that sometimes even after breaking below 1.3066 the ‘busted’ setup can reach the 1.3120 area of target anyway, before correcting lower into the indicated levels)

Scenario 2. The next level of support and long entry is at 1.3075 with a stop below 1.3065. If price holds this long setup we could see the 1.3120 area hit (1st target) and then price hit the 1.3140 area (2nd target)

If you want to have  access to trading plans, watch weekly video reviews as I develop or record them, or get information on setups (before they happen) for the Euro-Dollar cross, the S&P500 index and some high volume  stocks, please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content like market commentaries, setups, e-books, articles on HFT and program trading, learning material on my method and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

Have a good day

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Euro-Dollar Analysis & Forecast, March 14th 2013 (English Language)

Hello traders,

Here below please find attached the video-analysis of the Euro FX currency futures for today March 14th:

As anticipated (see the previous analysis) the Euro corrected down into the 1.2900 area, stopping today at 1.2931. I anticipate a bounce higher now from the current price level. We still don’t know exactly where the bounce will come from.

Hereunder are the two scenarios (refer to the below picture):

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart - March 14th, 2013

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart – March 14th, 2013

Scenario 1. Price is now within an area in which we could see strong participation on the upside. Above 1.3030 (based on current lows at 1.2931) the confirmation of support will come and price will start a move into the 1.4080-1.41 area. The start of the move higher could come from lower levels at 1.2915 or even 1.2840, if price dips lower.

Scenario 2. There is still a possibility price could keep moving lower past the 1.2769 and 1.2712 level (the latter ist he line in the sand). Below 1.2712 we could have a very high probable retest retest of the 1.2130 area of monthly support. However my belief is that scenario 2 has low probability at the moment.

If you want to have  access to trading plans, watch weekly video reviews as I develop or record them, or get information on setups (before they happen) for the Euro-Dollar cross, the S&P500 index and some high volume  stocks, please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content like market commentaries, setups, e-books, articles on HFT and program trading, learning material on my method and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

Have a good day

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Filed under English language, Euro FX analysis and trade setups videos, Forex, Trading Plan

FibStalker View on Stocks, February 17th, 2013 (English Language)

Hello,

hereunder is the last review on the stocks I featured in my FibStalker View on Stocks sent on January 17th, 2013 to my Newsletter subscribers. I will normally publish this information reviews 8-15 days after they are shared with subscribers. The FibStalker View on Stocks review offers insights into stocks trading, setups and target information for the list of stocks I currently follow on my Blog.  If you trade stocks or want to learn how to analyze them it is good to get the information I share timely. To do that you can register my free Newsletter, it only take 10 seconds.

The current list includes: AAPL, ACN, BAC, BIDU, C, F, GOOG, GS, HPQ, NFLX e RIMM. Hereunder is the review I have published on February 17th, 2013:

 This week I continue on this new section where I review a set stocks I am currently following and that you can find on my Blog’s ‘Stocks & ETFs’ page (this is an ever growing list of tickers). I will build upon the last analysis published to my subscribers on February 3rd Newsletter. I will keep adding stocks to this page and I am open to subscribers’ suggestions, with the only constraint that the proposed stocks must be widely followed and highly participated (high daily volume bigger than 1M) for my analysis and trading method to work. For instance, last week I have added Facebook (FB) to my list, which is now featured.

This week I will briefly review AAPL(w), ACN, BAC(w), BIDU (w), C, F,  FB(w), GS, HPQ (w), NFLX and RIMM(w). The stocks with a (w=watch) after the ticker are those you want to closely monitor in the coming days because they could offer opportunities in the very short term on the daily chart. You can review the last video-analysis and plans for the stocks using the links provided below on the right of the stock ticker.
Hope you will enjoy this new section. Please spend time to study the setups and review the video-analysis I will keep recording in order to understand how I analyze price.

AAPL (last analyzed on January 24th, 2013)
The area of support starting at 453 held so far and was capable of pushing prices higher. With the violation of the 477 level on the upside we had failure of the sequence of measured moves lower in the weekly chart. A confirmation will be given if current levels at 460 hold and price does not dip below 452. Above the 452 it is possible for the stock to rally into the 496.20 area, next level of resistance. From that area the move lower could resume or price could keep moving higher into 514.70 area. Above 510-11 there is the possibility of higher prices, but not before a larger retrace (please refer to the trading plan published on January 24th, 2013)

ACN (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
On the longer-term timeframe this stock has a support in the 55 area with a first target at 71 (already hit) and a second target at 79.30. On the daily chart the support at 64.50 identified in November 2012 held and price kept moving higher and is on its way to the target at the 75.30 as anticipated in the previous analysis. If the stock will keep moving higher with the market the next target is at the 81 area.

BAC (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
Price has been moving higher based on the setup provided on Jan 13th, so congratulations to those who took it and maintained the position. Price is now approaching the first target indicated at 12.70 area, however it has reversed in that 12.40 area that represent the beginning of a weekly area of resistance. A confirmation of that area of resistance with a continuation lower will be provided if price falls below the 11.50 level. Otherwise we could see price keep moving higher into 12.70 and then 13.40 (2nd target). In the past I have proposed price action forecasts for this stock. One of them was verified on Dec 18th, 2013. The levels indicated in this forecast are not random level, but they were rather derived applying the trading rules of the method, based on the observations of the effects of Program Trading on price.

BBRY (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
(data problems for BBRY due to change of ticker: previous ticker was RIMM. It was analyzed on the Mid-Week update sent on February the 21st, 2013).

The swift move lower onto the 12.30 area where I anticipated long participation from Program Trading bounced and then came to make some sort of a second re-test of that support area. Stops are still below 10.80, which is the line in the sand. Below this level something is wrong and the stock will need to be re-evaluated. But, so far the long is still working and we have a target into the 21.10 area (1st target) and then 25.70 (2nd target). As price moved already above 16, after testing the 12.30 support area, the targets were confirmed. A retest of the 12.30 area could now hold and the stock has the potential to see the first resistance area at 38.

BIDU (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
In the last review I have indicated the bullish scenario as the most probable, but the bearish scenario played out. The stock found short participation in the resistance area starting at 110.30 area and has been moving down in the last two weeks, with a gap down, which makes it more difficult to analyze price. In a continuation lower price should not move above 102.30. The short scenario as currently a target into the 74.45. The stock could be entered short in a retrace higher on the daily chart.

C (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
The stock traded into and through that 44.40 level indicated in the last review.From these levels we could see a deeper retracement. If that’s the case the next retracement should come in the 42.80 area. Targets, in this case, would be at 45.50 (1st target) and then 47 (2nd target). On the other hand, if the stock keeps trading higher in extension the next stop will be the 46.20 area.

F (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
The resistance starting at the 13.90 area kicked in at the beginning of February and there were participants on the short side who brought price into the next support area at 13. So far bulls kept defending the 12.65 level which is the line in the sand for a larger retracement into the 11.60 level. We have resistances at 13.40 and 13.90 (strong) areas and it still looks risky to go long at this level, although should the market keep moving higher, Ford could pick up from here with targets above at 14.90,16 and then 18.80 area. The market moved laterally on top of 13.00 support in the last two weeks, so you can still probe a long here or wait for a safer retracement into the 11.60 area, which could be reached if the general market makes a small correction.

FB (last analyzed on February 13th, 2013)
The last analysis on February 13th, 2013 is still valid.T he stock is currently reacting higher and price could be pushed into the next short selling entry area between 29.25 and 29.80, with stops above 30.50. The targets for the lager move lower is at 11.10, which will be confirmed if price moves below 23.20! On the smaller timeframe targets will be in the 26.20 and 24.50 areas, but given the larger target the potential for this stocks is very large too, with a potential 60% gain.

GS (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
The stock kept moving in a grind higher very similarly to the general market and it could correct swiftly with it. New longs look very dangerous in this stock and it would be better to wait for a larger retrace that, at current highs could bring prices into the 142.90 area before a new continuation higher.

HPQ (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
Nothing changed in this stock, although I can now see potential bearish developments. We have still two opposing setups. On the short side, the bears were able to defend the next weekly short starting at the 16.40 area and all the way into the 17.7 level that was never violated on the upside. Bulls, on the other side, were able and still supporting price in the 16.20 area. If this continues and bulls are able to defend the 15.80 threshold, there is a possibility of a continued move higher into the 18 area (1st target) and even the 19 area (2nd target). If bulls lose the 15.80 level it’s possible that price will slide into the 14.40 area and even lower to retest lows at 11.40. Stop-loss for long positions is still below 15.80.

NFLX (last analyzed on February 3rd, 2013)
On Jan 13th I wrote bulls were in control of this stock and I said price could get back to the 133 and even the 179 resistance level. The stock respected the support in the 158.50 and hit the 186 (1s target) indicated in the last analysis. Price now entered the resistance level starting at 179 and could move all the way into the 209 level. The current long setup being traded is the next traditional long with support in the 173.60s and 1st target at the 196 area, while second target is at 207.50, very close to that 209 failure level of shorts on the larger weekly timeframe. Let long profits run.’

Need to prepare for your trading week or just want to get a different opinion on the financial instruments you follow? Are you new to trading and want to start with the right steps. Do you want to understand more on how I use my method based on measured moves inferred by observing the effects of Program Trading on price and the proprietary Fibonacci Stalking technique for directional trading of index, forex and hedging futures, forex pairs and some high-volume stocks?

If you want to have access to the content and watch the video reviews as soon as possible, as well as, receive the material every weekend, please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content, comments, setups, e-books, articles, learning material and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog. Tomorrow too I am going to send out a special mid-week assessment of the Euro-Dollar cross, the Dollar Index and the S&P500 index, along with actionable trading plans for the Euro and the S&P500.

Subscribe my free newsletter to get ideas on stocks, forex and futures setups and learn to analyze price and supply and demand.

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This week, March 10th 2013, in my free weekly Newsletter (English Language)

Hello all,

in this post I am providing an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter I am going to send out tomorrow, Sunday March 10th:

  • FOREX – Week end video review of the forex EUR/USD cross (English & Italian)
  • FOREX – FibStalker viewpoint on Currencies: weekend review of GPB/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & USD/JPY (sorry, English only)
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Plan for the Euro FX currency futures going forward (English & Italian)
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Plan for the S&P500 index going forward (English & Italian)
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Plan for the Dollar index going forward (English & Italian)
  • FUTURES – FibStalker View on Futures: weekend review and forecast of Dollar Index, Euro-Dollar and S&P500 futures (sorry, English only)
  • STOCKS – FibStalker View on Stocks: weekend review and forecast for AAPL, ACN, BAC, BBRY, BIDU, C, F, FB, GOOG, GS, HPQ, NFLX (sorry, English only)
  • What am I working on? (English & Italian)

I put every effort I can into offering newsletter content free of mistakes and both in English and Italian languages. However some articles or reviews will only be in English (or Italian) and, from time to time, there will be refuses, so I ask you to be patient. Anyway, with time I will try to have cleaner content available in both languages .

I will only post timely and detailed updates of trading plans in my free newsletter. Register for free here.

If you like this website, please recommend it to your friends. If you want it to be better, please, leave me a feedback (comment below).

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend to use this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

Have a good day

Thank you

Have a great week end.

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Filed under Dollar Index, Euro FX setups and trades, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Stocks, Trading Plan, Weekly review

Analisi e Forecast Euro-Dollaro, 11 Marzo 2013 (Italian Language)

Salve,

Qui sotto video-analisi e forecast del prezzo per il contratto Euro FX currency futures per lunedi 11 Marzo:

Il contratto dell’Euro FX currency futures si trova ancora in movimenti misurati al ribasso sul grafico giornaliero. L’ultimo setup ha avuto resistenza e ingresso al ribasso nell’intorno del livello 1.3170 con uno stop al di sopra di 1.3205, che non e’ mai stato violato. Il primo target nell’area 1.2950 e’ stato solamente raggiunto venerdi scorso (8 Marzo). Quanti hanno pensato che il rally dovuto al meeting della BCE fosse l’inizio di un movimento al rialzo per l’Euro erano chiaramente in errore (naturalmente il downgrade dell’Italia da parte di Fitch era gia’ noto prima del meeting della BCE).

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart - March 11th, 2013

Figura – “Euro FX futures contract, daily chart – March 11th, 2013

Se consideriamo il primo target in area 1.2950 raggiunto venerdi, ci sono due possibilita’ da considerare adesso. All’inizio della settimana potremmo assistere ad un rally del prezzo in area 1.3040 (o anche piu’ in alto, sino a rompere il livello 1.3065) e quindi un ritorno verso il basso, verso l’area di supporto a 1.2900; oppure, il prezzo potrebbe semplicemente continuare a scendere nell’area di supporto in 1.2900. Qui sotto vi sono i due scenari (si faccia riferimento alla figura sopra):

Scenario 1. Il prezzo non sale a tradare la successiva area di resistenza ed ingresso al ribasso, ma continua a muoversi verso il basso nell’area di supporto 1.2900. Potremmo assistere ad una partecipazione al rialzo di trader professionisti e Program Trading nell’area 1.2900.

Scenario 2. Se l’Euro incontrasse ordini di acquisto Lunedi, il prezzo potrebbe muoversi al rialzo in area 1.3040 o anche al di sopra di essa, per poi tornare a muoversi al ribasso verso l’area 1.2900. Di nuovo, si potrebbe assistere ad una partecipazione al rialzo di trader professionisti e Program Trading nell’area 1.2900.

C’e’ ancora una possibilita’ che il prezzo continui attraverso l’area di supporto che incomincia in 1.2900 e che violi al ribasso il livello 1.2700. In quel caso si puo’ anticipare un ritest dell’area di supporto in 1.2130.

Redico una newsletter gratuita in due lingue (italiano e inglese) ed in essa fornisco video review del fine settimana ed aggiornamenti infra-settimanali, con piani di trading per Euro, indice S&P500 ed alcune azioni, ed informazioni di dettaglio sui setup di trade nel forex (prima che avvengano). La newsletter viene di solito spedita la domenica (mentre l’aggiornamento infra-settimanale il mercoledi successivo) ed include materiale didattico, articoli, video review settimanali ed altre informazioni che non condivido sul Blog. Per registrarsi fate click sull’immagine qui sotto.

Vi ringrazio in anticipo se deciderete di sottoscrivere la newsletter. Molte persone lo hanno gia’ fatto.

Se intendete usare queste informazioni per il vostro trading vi prego di fare le vostre verifiche e la vostra analisi, cercare la consulenza di un professionista ed e’ sottinteso che ogni trade basata su queste informazioni sara’ di vostra responsabilita’. Le informazioni nel Blog sono riportate a solo scopo informativo. Siete pregati di leggere il Disclaimer e accettare tutti i rischi. Grazie.

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Filed under Euro FX analysis and trade setups videos, Forex, Italiano (Italian language), Trading Plan

Euro-Dollar Analysis & Forecast, March 11th 2013 (English Language)

Hello traders,

Here below please find attached the video-analysis of the Euro FX currency futures for today March 1st:

The Euro FX futures is still in measured moves lower on the daily chart. The last setup had resistance and short entry around the 1.3170 level with a stop above 1.3205 which was never hit. The first target in the 1.2950 area was only hit yesterday. Those who though the BCE rally was the start of the move higher of the Euro were mistaken (of course Fitch downgrading Italy was already ‘known’ the day of the BCE rally).

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart - March 11th, 2013

Euro FX futures contract, daily chart – March 11th, 2013

If we consider the 1.2950 first target hit on Friday we have two possibilities now. At the beginning of the week we could rally into the 1.3040 area (or even higher breaking the 1.3065) level and then come back into the 1.2900 support; or,price could just keep moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. Hereunder are the two scenarios (refer to the above picture):

Scenario 1. Price does not trade the next traditional short at the 1.3040 area, but just keeps moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. We could witness participation in the 1.2900 from professionals and Program Trading.

Scenario 2. If the Euro gets a bid on Monday price could move higher into the 1.3040 area or above and then resume the move lower into the 1.2900 area. In the 1.2900 area or slightly below it we could witness participation from professionals and Program Trading.

There is still a possibility for price to continue through the 1.2900 area and pierce the 1.2700 level, in which case we can anticipate a retest of the 1.2130 area of support.

If you want to have  access to trading plans, watch weekly video reviews as I develop or record them, or get information on setups (before they happen) for the Euro-Dollar cross, the S&P500 index and some high volume  stocks, please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content like market commentaries, setups, e-books, articles on HFT and program trading, learning material on my method and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

Have a good day

Leave a comment

Filed under English language, Euro FX analysis and trade setups videos, Forex, Trading Plan