Here below please find attached the video-analysis of the Euro FX currency futures for today March 1st:
My swing shorts are still and if you followed previous analysis on the blog you know about the possibility for price to move into the 1.2900 area. Currently we are a few pips away from that level and below is the updated view on the Euro FX futures:
As anticipated in the last days and weeks price is coming all the way back into the 1.2900 area of support. On the daily chart (above picture) the current short setup 1.3160 area is pushing price lower into the first target 1.2950 and second target at 1.2840 which lines up with that 200-day SMA. That is where I see price potentially stopping and reversing.
Below the 1.2700 level the Euro has the potential to correct all the way back into the 1.2130 area. But I consider this a less probable scenario at the moment. The US Dollar could end its move and we could see a reversal. Such reversal could take 15 to 20 days to take place (if history repeats).
The following two scenarios were identified:
Scenario 1. If price finds support at the 1.2840-1.2900 area and this case will be confirmed with price above 1.2950 and then 1.3040. If price bounces and moves above 1.3040 we could get a lateral move in March, with two retest of lows (M-for-Murder pattern against support at in the 1.2900 area) before seeing a move into 1.41. This would leave time to the dollar to invert the current long trend.
Scenario 2. Price keeps moving lower below 1.2840 after a bounce and it breaks the 1.2700 area. In this case we could just continue lower into 1.2130 maybe before a large bounce
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