Category Archives: Articles

Article: “With the presence of Algorithms the markets have changed. How do you cope?” – May 5, 2014

Hey, FibStalker here.

As you may know I am not a big fan of traditional technical analysis. Why? You cannot win in the markets and make returns that can turn relatively small trading accounts into important amounts in a reasonable time (2-3 years).

No Paradise
Let’s face it, this is what all of us want. Isn’t it?

But you cannot do it with average cross-overs, indicators, pivots, trend lines or even the “modern” technical tools and indicators, all of which largely lag price, do not provide a trading plan, need to reconciled, etc. etc. But still the majority of traders rely on traditional TA alone, rather than studying and understanding price market structure, which is still considered very sophisticated, if considered at all. Today you have more tools, but still 95% of traders are loss-making.

Wonder why? In short, the simple ways of the past and modern TA tools and indicators are not capable of consistently identifying low-risk setups. Plus the available reward/risk ratios are relatively low. There is no “promised paradise” in such conditions.

Markets have changed
Now if you add on top of this that the presence of automated Algorithms (Algos) has changed the markets in the last 20-30 years, traditional TA looks less useful than ever.

The markets have changed, what does it means for you and your trading? This means that high-volume financial instruments (futures, forex, stocks, bonds) now expose price behavior and a structure that can be leveraged to improve trading decisions;

So it is all bad news? No, not at all. It is good news instead. Yes because you can use that price structure to help you not only identifying reversal areas well in advance and with precision. You can do much more…

What can you Do by Knowing Price Structure?
You can identify level where participation from Algos is expected and then test those areas. These are areas of low-risk setups that can be timed in the smaller timeframe in a totally procedural fashion. I call this technique the FibStalking Timing and I have authored it.

Sounds complex or impossible? Not at all. When you master price structure analysis based on the effects of algorithms (Algos), your trading gets pushed to the top…to the level of the Elite 5% of professional traders, who make money consistently.

You Can Become a Consistent Trader
Becoming expert in recognizing effects of Algos on price and taking advantage of it is not difficult. Anyone can do it. There’s just a specific process a set of tasks or “formula”, if you like it, that you have to follow.

A formula that most people are clueless about, as they are of the overwhelming presence and power of Algos and Program Trading (a peculiar family of algorithms) that can be leveraged for consistent gains and to create and maintain a prolonged trading success…

The playing field is completely level on this matter. People I work with come to me telling they have never witnessed my method. Trading based on effects of Algos on price is little known, if know at all by retail traders.

A lot of unique, effective and proprietary research has gone into this field to which I have dedicated over 10,000 hours since 2006, almost half of my total market exposure of 18,000 hours. I am an IFTA associate with 3 published papers and a 4th one to be published in July.

But isn’t trading difficult?
Trading is difficult only if you try to trade according to non-grounded market behaviors. TA has nothing to do with market behavior and price structure. An indicator or signal derived by one or more indicators are only representation of statistical tables of failure and success with a random probability.

Add mistakes, discording signals not reconciled consistently, mistakes, costs of trading, lack of discipline, lack of risk and money management and you should not be surprised that 95% of traders lose money in the markets (yes, confirmed, that is the number — I demonstrated it in my free webinar: “How to get and stay into the Elite 5%” , see below)

I suggest the full series of webinars on FXStreet.com.

See when you stop trading the non-sense you can be successful without having years of experience in the markets. And actually the lesser the experience, the easier is to grasp the counter-intuitive concepts in the FibStalker Methods Coaching Program.

Can You Really Make it?
My honest and helpful suggestion for you, if you want to start or re-start in trading, is to have a look at the benefits of the 7 months Program, and what it means for your trading. You can learn how to identify levels of potential participation from Algos and then how to time the reversal setups procedurally, with no initial money at risk and only after confirmation.

It does not get better than this. It is the market action itself “sucking you into” a valid position, aligned with the Psychology of the Markets. Plus you will learn to use proprietary tools and advanced techniques like the FibStalking Timing.

If you want to learn a complete approach to professional trading, including Advanced timing, analyzing and finally understanding price structure and what you can expect and anticipate on all timeframes, performing price discovery to know what is likely to happen consider joining my May 2015 session starting on Saturday May 30, 2015.

Learn to identify and validate solid, low-risk trading plans, write your own trading system based on the proven components that I will provide you with. In the program I will also help you finally installing a mental model to become a consistent trader.

You just have to know what the formula is and then follow it. I am making this formula available to a growing number of satisfied traders and at a price and with value that you will never seen again.

In fact, not only I am offering a discount but a new intraday trading system and value for $2,000 on top of the Coaching Program. Check my offer here. It all ends on May 29, 2015:

–> May 2015 Offer for the FibStalker Methods Coaching Program – DONT’ MISS IT! <–

As usual, let me know what you think by leaving an email at: fibstalker at gmail.com or a post on my blog.

Below the link to my newsletter if you want to learn more about my methods and my edge in the markets.

Have a great day.

The FibStalker Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

 

Leave a comment

Filed under Articles, Coaching Program, Education, Forex, Market Timing, Money Management, Risk Management, Trading Method, Trading Plan

FXStreet Forex Toronto Meetup celebrates 1 year of activity with Chris Lori! – January 30, 2015

Dear all,

One year has passed since I accepted the call from Francesc Riverola, CEO of FXStreet.com, to co-organize and lead the FXStreet Forex Meetup in Toronto.

It has been great and rewarding time and this February we are going to celebrate this first year!

And what better way to do it with a model athlete and institutional trader.

Few people can claim what Chris Lori has achieved in sport, life and trading!

Meet the man here: http://www.chrislori.com/Media and here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Lori

And do not forget to subscribe to Chris website and newsletter on his website: http://www.chrislori.com

In the next very exciting Meetup, taking place next Thursday in Toronto, at the Sheraton Hotel Centre at 6.30pm, Chris will talk about the relations between Volatility and Liquidity in the Forex markets. Particularly how FX positions of large institution affect liquidity.

20150130_Chris Lori meetup

Find more information on the Meetup and Chris’ speech here below:

“In this live presentation, Chris Lori, CTA and Institutional Fund Manager, will discuss the mechanics of liquidity in the institutional back office and its delivery to the  broader FX market. Chris will share how the investment bank clients FX positioning affects liquidity and price movement, and how price defines his own trading model. There will be a focus on volatility, price relationships and reaction points that would be of interest to short or longer term traders. Chris will also shed light on the process one can engage to build a more intimate understanding of specific price behaviors.  Whether you trade using mathematical models, price behaviors, or other, the information coming from an experienced FX asset manager will be of interest to all traders. ”

If you live in the Torotno GTA (Great Toronto Area) or not to far from it, you may want to consider joining us at the Meetup. The monthly meetups will be kindly hosted by CMC Markets, the leading forex broker.

Register to the FXStreet Forex Toronto Meetup today and come to meet like-minded people, share knowledge, get your questions answered and learn more about trading and forex directly from the pros. You will be having lots of fun in the process and will be our guest after the event for a free drink .

We are going to meet every month at the Sheraton Hotel Centre for an hour or so of learning with engaging content and Forex practitioners, presentations. After the meeting we will move to a closer pub to continue talking about Forex, sharing our battles, our hurdles, small and big wins in trading and having fun. This is a free event and to all participants every month CMC Markets will be offering the first round of drinks after the meetup!

I look forward to seeing you there!

Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

http://www.fibstalkertrading.com

2 Comments

Filed under Articles, Education, Event/Webinar, Forex

Article: “Never forget the Market can do Anything” – November 19, 2014

20131205_market can do anything

Dear all,
I often find myself and other traders and students I work with to never forget that the Market can do Anything.
Indeed, most of the things and concepts of trading that I have learned or unlearned in the years had to do with the two following concepts:
1) designing my strategy so that I could  cope with anything the market could throw at me — yes, because the “Market can do Anything” (and I would not end up ‘holding the bag’ because price would move and remain below my entry point)

2) incorporate proper and enhanced risk management so that the possibility of 1) happening is low or non-existent — a level of risk management that the majority would not be ready to accept, like exiting half of the position once the gain on the position reaches a level where it equals the trading risk.

Thus I believe the majority of retail traders do not understand or realize that you *MUST* cope with the master principle that “Market can do Anything”, while I often hear words like “expect”, “assume” and even “know” that the price can do this or that.
Words are powerful, and you should be very careful because you need to *think* something before you say it. And if you think you can expect, assume and even know what price is going to do next, well…. you will be lost — statistically and practically becoming part of the 95% group of retail traders who do not make money in the markets, but rather lose consistently.

The market is “Always Right”, if you address it with a “fixed number of pip risk”, or any other type of assumption of expectations, you will fail. Full stop.
Let the market pick the pip risk, the trading plan and all the rest: you must understand how the market is moving (normally, extended, are algos holding their anchors, etc.)
On the risk side of things, the majority of traders also do not understand that this is a game that you win in defense. You must consistently take small risks and increase the reliability and expectancy of your method. Risk management is a constant and there are ways to improve it. The problem is that you cannot just avoid optimizing risk because you only have access to a method that — being based on traditional technical analysis — can only offer R/R<=3 trades with low probability of hitting the targets.
When you start with such a disadvantage and do not get involved at the beginning of a move (the best way to manage risk too) you will think that the only way to make good return in trading is to increase risk and, maybe, even use leverage (I am *AGAINST* the use of leverage in trading, and it is not needed)…

A smart follower wrote the following to me today in relation to a level I mentioned a few days ago in the EUR/USD before it materialized: “Have a question… you had predicted EUR/USD to 1.21ish and before that to 1.26. We technically touched 1.26 today, but not over 1.26. Do you think now down to 1.21 before any uptrend ?

This question offers me the opportunity — before I offer the answer — for some speculation on the way I think about trading. For me price analysis is a balances of forces. Typically when a level or area of participation by Algos is reached I wait for a confirmation. Basically the Algorithms on the smaller timeframe, driving the counter-trend move into the important level of participation, have to show me that they give the way to the larger timeframe. The larger timeframe wins often, but not all the time. And those time when it does not win, summed to the resulting highest reliability and expectancy that can be obtained by trading right at the FibStalker levels, adds up a lot! Both in the area of winners percentage and R/R values.

So here below is my answer:

“The way my method works is that when I get price into the level of interest, where I anticipate participation for algos on the larger timeframe, I look at what happens on the smaller timeframes.

Imagine 1.26 like a potential barrier where sellers on the larger timeframe can come back into the market again. But nothing is guaranteed int the market. So at these levels I become more vigilant and switch to the smaller timeframe.
To know whether shorts will be successful they need to be strong enough to win the buyers that have pushed the market higher in the last few days.
There are two set of sequences of moves higher that matter at the moment: one on the 4-hour and the other on the 15min.

What I do then is checking if and when these counter-trend sequences fail, as an effect of new shorts that can potentially come in into the markets at the 1.26.

We all know all the information in advance and I use the FibStalking Timing Technique to verify where the 4-hour and 15min sequences fail, if they fail.

So generally there are two scenarios: 1) the sequences fail and the FibStalking timing tells you the exact confirmation level (is a well-defined price level) that tells you when the counter-trend move is not valid any more. That’s the time you must get involved in a short.

Using the confirmation level you get involved in very good spots with high R/R and only after confirmation. This is why trading with the Algos is so convenient and traditional TA is not capable of offering such high R/R trades.

On the other hand it can happen that the counter-trend sequences on the 4-hour and 15min remain intact and no-one shows up at 1.26. In this case you don’t have money at risk and the market can do whatever it wants. I will just wait.

I only get involved in the markets at my own conditions (because after you are in the market can do anything).

Now the good point is that when the counter-trend move fails below or above a FibStalker level, price momentum in the direction of the trade is strong enough to generate a free-risk trade.

If you understand trading and risk management, you know that generating a free-risk trade from a low risk retrace is your job #1 as a trader.

And that’s what I attempt to do. Once I have a free-risk trade I also have a free mind and I can go to think to something else. Because either the market hits my swing profit target or closes me at breakeven minus costs and slippage.

PS: I teach the mechanical and totally procedural way to time FibStalker levels like the 1.26 in the EUR/USD in my multi-month Coaching Program. Drop me an email at fibstalker at gmail.com and ask for information.

As usual, let me know what you think by leaving an email at: fibstalker at gmail.com or a post on my blog.

Below the link to my newsletter if you want to learn more about my methods and my edge in the markets.

Have a great day.

The FibStalker Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

 

4 Comments

Filed under Articles, Coaching Program, Education, Forex, Market Timing, Money Management, Risk Management, Trading Method, Trading Plan

Plenty of Activity in the coming Month at FibStalker.com – November 18, 2014

Dear Trader,
last two weeks have been very busy and I kept creating free content to help new and experienced traders becoming fully profitable.

I have a number of resources to share with you and I will do this in the coming days in here and in my blog.

Here is what I am going to share:

– latest interview with Dale Pinkert at the FXStreet.com LAR where I showed the successful USD/JPY call of August 1st and showed what we have to expect moving forwards in USD/JPY (and EUR/USD)

– the commentary of my projection for USD/JPY

– my latest presentation at the Toronto Forex Meetup Group

– the three new initiatives I am preparing for the next month (this is really interesting, more on it here and/or my blog).

– and, of course, the effort I am putting in the new session of my FibStalker Methods Coaching Program.

I like to help traders at all level of development “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they are saying they are doing). Follow my work to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints.

I send a free Newsletter in the weekend and provide updates throughout the week. The newsletter typically includes 3 video reviews for (1) EUR/USD, Dollar Index, S&P500 emini and Gold emini; (2) the Japanese Yen majors, i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY; (3) the other majors: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & NZD/USD.

Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

Have a great day.
Regards,,,

Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

Leave a comment

Filed under Articles

Successful first event with CMC Markets with the Toronto Forex Meetup Group – November 18, 2014

Dear traders,

last Saturday, I kicked off the new series of events in Toronto as host of the Toronto Forex Meetup Group by FXStreet.com

Here below find the account that event.

As usual I offered freely part of my research, this time, on the effects of HFT on other classes and families of Algos, those that I used in my own trading edge. Read below

Successful first event with CMC Markets in Toronto

This November we welcomed CMC Markets as new sponsor of the FXStreet Toronto trading group. CMC Markets has been an established player in the industry for 25 years. Their global presence covers Canada, Europe, Asia and Australia.

Last Saturday, 15th of November, we held our first event together at the Sheraton Parkaway Conference Centre for an hour of learning about Forex. Practical considerations on the effects of HFT on price was the topic choosen by Giuseppe Basile, CMT, swing trader, IFTA associate and group host.

Giuseppe delighted us with an analysis on HFT. He provided a general vision on the concept and explained the effect on price structure, how does it change and the underlying “war” between classes and families of algorithms (not only HFT). The effects of HFT on methods attempt to frame price structure and show a real market example during planned news and what can happen in those cases.

If you missed it or just want to refresh the concepts, you have the chance to watch the full presentation here.

More on www.fibstalker.com

If you are in Toronto, join us!

Have a good day.
Giuseppe

Leave a comment

Filed under Articles, Event/Webinar, Forex, High Frequency Trading, Webinar

“Back to Business. But hey, what a vacation!” – Part 1, September 16, 2014

Dear all,

this is to let you know that I am now back to business and I will resume posting on this blog and in my newsletter like before and even more frequently.

I have taken two weeks off and spent the first week on an unforgettable trip around Northern California, in a 1008-mile tour during 5 days of hard riding a Heritage Softail Harley Davidson beauty.

Hereunder is the picture of this 400kgs monster. A very reliable motorbike, like my FibStalker trading methods :-), which did not lose one single beat in the whole journey.

20140916_me and the beauty

Here are some highlights the first trip (golden gate and Mariposa grove, south of Yosemite National Park):

20140828_151824 201400831_ 025 201400831_ 029 DCIM101GOPRO

I went from Montain View to San Francisco and then to the north side of the bay through the Golden Gate. There continued to Sausalido and Sonoma to see the wine valleys and finally Sacramento. The next day went to Lake Tahoe and continued to Carson city in Nevada and spent the evening in Virginia city, an incredible place. You tell me, check below:

Aug_29_2014_ 049 Aug_29_2014_ 027 Aug_29_2014_ 018 Aug_29_2014_ 012

The trip continued towards south on the 395 (the Sierra Leone) to Mono Lake, another “unreal” place. After that I drove west-bounds into and through the Yosemite National Park. I felt in love with that place….

…more on that in the next post.

Have a good continuation of the week

Talk Soon

Cheers

Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

2 Comments

Filed under Articles, Holidays, Travelling

“Closed for Holidays” and interesting first day away, August 27 2014

Dear all,

this is to let you know that in the coming weeks I will not post about the markets in this blog (well I may post something every time and then…;-).

I have taken a couple of weeks off the markets to regenerate and rest. This will also allow me to restart fully energized and capable of committing on quality and ready to over-deliver in the first coaching course that I will be starting at the beginning of October.

Here are some recent pictures of the first day of my trip (mainly spent traveling from Toronto, ON to San Francisco, CA). However I was lucky enough to have a few hours to spend in down town S.Francisco tonight, and this is what I have discovered:

20140827_213310 20140827_213332 20140827_213347 20140827_213514 20140827_222428 20140827_222818

The pictures above were taken at the historic “Caffe Trieste” in the Italian district of San Francisco (Columbus and Vallejo st). The street looks really like a common Italian street, and people actually speak Italian!
This is the place where Francis Ford Coppola used to go when he was writing the script the famous “The Godfather“!!!

The last picture shows Francis Ford Coppola working with Papa Gianni (owner of Caffe Trieste) and Gianfranco Giotta. I suppose the Italian guys did probably supported Francis explaining to him how the Mafia works in Italy….

In the other pictures I am with new friends: a cop who graciously offered to take a picture outside the cafe and Aaron, a young passionate political activist who opposed Chavez in the last few years, now living in USA….

Only the first day, but it has been intense and interesting so far.

Tomorrow I will pick up a Harley Davidson and will start a 5-day trip in Northern California….

If you are interested, come back to the blog for more pictures, commentary and up to date information on my trip.

Have a good continuation of the week

Talk Soon

Regards,,

Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

7 Comments

Filed under Articles, Holidays, Travelling