Category Archives: Trading Psychology

Daily Review and levels for EUR/USD, S&P500, Dollar Index and Gold, June 4 2014

Dear traders,

Following up on this morning June 4, 2014 Daily Update on the 12 markets I follows, this is my take on the EUR/USD, S&P500, Dollar Index and Gold for the coming days:

EUR/USD: better to wait the decision of the ECB on Thursday. Not a time to get involved in my opinion. If you fear that this market will continue lower without us, fear not!
This market will eventually retrace into one of the measured moves indicated in the video (1.3680 or 1.3710 – estimated at current lows – levels that I have indicated also in the weekly review)  and we will let market action decide.

S&P500 e-mini futures: above that critical 1916 level. It could retrace into 1904 before continuing higher. This market is moving in extension longs and in my opinion this type of move is not sustainable in the long-term

Dollar Index futures: this contract is still trading an extension long that was identified on May 20. The first target at 80.60 was hit and now this market has to potential to be moving into the second target at 80.90/81. After that we should witness a retrace (depending also on ECB decisions)

Gold mini: Now that previous support area starting at 1,286 has given way the market has confirmed shorts with the first target level of the largest daily short (1,333 area) at 1,250 being reached. I do not anticipate a large retrace when shorts will start taking profits (this could have started already). Shorts could enter the market again at 1,261 with a stop above 1,266.50.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary method based on modeling effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price.

I like to help traders “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they are saying they are doing). Follow my work to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints.

I send a free Newsletter in the weekend and provide updates throughout the week. The newsletter typically includes 3 video reviews for (1) EUR/USD, Dollar Index, S&P500 emini and Gold emini; (2) the Japanese Yen majors, i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY; (3) the other majors: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders.

Sharing is caring…

Have a great trading day

The FibStalker Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

 

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What do you do if you are stuck in a EUR/USD long?, May 26 2014

Dear traders,

tonight I have prepared a brief video for a follower who asked for help on how to limit damages in a very difficult situation where he is stuck in a long.

While my position and the rules of conduct and ethics I gave myself do not allow me to provide advice, it did not take long for me to decide what was right to do after briefly re-experiencing the pain and feeling of loss and pressure of all the times I find myself in a similar situation in the past. Yes it did happen, a number of times. In the video posted below I have analyzed the EUR/USD in the daily, 4-hour and 15min timeframes hoping that my opinions on price action in this market can be of help to all the inexperienced traders who are currently stuck in a long in the Euro and are at risk of having their capital whipped out, especially if they are using leverage.

I hear the same story over and over again, and I have make public some recent data I gathered from one of the largest Forex brokers in North America in relation to the problem of using leverage, over-committing oneself and not using stops. The numbers are still very bad: 22% of Forex traders do not use stop-losses and end up getting a margin call, eventually losing amounts – in average – between $2,000 and $6,000.

Depending on where the entry point is, it may be difficult to exit without having losses. Each market has is own peculiar character. And we know that the EUR/USD likes to trade in extension shorts when it start trading lower. On the larger timeframe (weekly) we have all the indications for a possible revisit of the 1.30 area. It happened in the past and it could happen again.

On Monday and the opening Asian session of Tuesday we witnessed a recovering price in the Euro. This market is now reacting higher after 12 sessions of a continued downwards move. Daily and 4-hour chart are showing a potential short participation of Program Trading (and professional traders) in the 1.3710-1.3725 area. Of course the market could go higher and the hint, as usual, will be provided by the action in the 15min chart.

The smaller 15min timeframe is currently showing a sequence of extended measured moves higher, which currently has the potential to push market higher into the 1.3672 and 1.3782 area before the next measured move short is likely to materialize. On the downside, piercing the 1.3655 first and 1.3652 later would be a confirmation that the move higher is like ended and we could witness a continuation lower.

Of course this is the most likely outcome, is not the sure outcome, because anything can happen in the market. The latest statement is the very reason we need to keep always our risk under control and leverage should not be used in trading.

The secret to making a living in trading is to work hard (like in any other entrepreneurial initiative) and learn to trade keeping the risk small (1% at each trade or lower). It takes time, but when you master the game you are in control. You can add more money and manage other people’s money, too. And when you do that you can prove and assure the people you manage money for that you have solid risk management, because you learned how to read market structure and become expert at it, while knowingly taking only low risk trades.

You got yourself interested and/or into a business in which if you do 20% or 25% a year you are a “superstar”! Why on earth would you risk it all to have a very little chance to make %1,000 in one year (in reality a 99.99% to lose everything, especially if you are leveraged) only to get a margin call and be wiped out?

I know I am being blunt here. But hold on the game, do it exactly at the time it delivers the harshest lessons, and you will be a winner!

I wish to you all the best and I hope that, if you are stuck in a EUR/USD long, you will come out of it with a minimal damage in capital and, especially, psychology.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary method based on modeling effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price.

I help traders “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they are saying they are doing). Follow my work to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints.

I send a free Newsletter in the weekend and provide updates throughout the week. The newsletter typically includes 3 video reviews for (1) EUR/USD, Dollar Index, S&P500 emini and Gold emini; (2) the Japanese Yen majors, i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY; (3) the other majors: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders.

Sharing is caring…

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Thank you.

Have a great day

Regards,,,

The FibStalker Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

 

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My upcoming Webinar featured on FXStreet.com, May 9th 2014

Hello Traders,

hope things are going well and your Friday is approaching smoothly, or maybe you are already relaxing?

I wanted to let you know that next Monday May 19 FXStreet.com, the largest global Forex portal, will be featuring my upcoming webinar titled: “Traditional and new uses of Fibonacci in Modern Markets”.

I am happy I will have the opportunity to share some of my research, which has practical impacts on my analysis and trading. The webinar will be on Monday May 19, 2014  14.00 GMT (10am Toronto time):

Here below is the webinar’s summary: Fibonacci is widely used in trading to model retracing price action where low-risk and high RR trades can be located. We review ways Fibonacci retraces are traditionally used and then compare those to a more effective method that helps framing price action. Program and algos Trading offer the edge to identify Fibonacci levels that enable ‘price discovery’, in addition to effective and complete trading plans.”

To register for the free “Traditional and new uses of Fibonacci in Modern Markets” webinar, follow the link below:

Click here to register for the webinar…

I hope you enjoy it, along with it fresh and very useful information.

I look forward to seeing you there. 

Have a great long weekend.

Regards,,,

The FibStalker  Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

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Filed under Education, English language, Event/Webinar, Forex, Futures, High Frequency Trading, Program Trading, Trading Method, Trading Psychology

My upcoming Webinar on FibStalking featured on FXStreet.com, April 18th 2014

Hello Traders,

hope things are going well and your long Good Friday and long weekend started smoothly and you are already relaxing.

I wanted to let you know that this weekend FXStreet.com, one of the largest global Forex portals, are featuring my upcoming Webinar on the “FibStalking” technique.

I am happy I will have the opportunity to share some of my dearest piece of research, which also has practical impacts on every day trading. The webinar will be on next tuesday April 22nd, 2014  12GMT:

Webinar on April 22nd 12GMT on FXStreet.com

Webinar on April 22nd 12GMT on FXStreet.com

Here below is the webinar’s summary: “Valid support and resistance levels are relatively easy to identify. On the other hand, whether involving levels or percentages, testing support or resistance always include some sort of price breakout and is strictly related to entry. We review typical entry methods and introduce “FibStalking”, an effective timing technique based on the presence of algo trading on several timeframes in large volume markets.”

To register for the free “FibStalking: A Timing Technique to Test Support and Resistance” webinar, follow the link below:

Click here to register for the webinar…

 

I hope you enjoy it, along with it fresh and very useful information.
I look forward to seeing you there. 

Have a great long weekend.

Regards,,,

The FibStalker  Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

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Filed under Education, English language, Event/Webinar, Forex, Futures, High Frequency Trading, Program Trading, Trading Method, Trading Psychology

EDUCATION – EUR/USD Strategy beginning of 2014 from FXStreet.com, January 5th 2014

Dear traders,

hope the new year 2014 started very well for you and your loved ones.

Hereunder is the excerpt from the main page of FXStreet.com, one of the largest global portal focusing on Forex, that this weekend is partly dedicated to my interview on January 3rd, at the LAR (Live Analysis Room) anchored by trader Dale Pinkert.

FXStreet.com interview EUR/USD strategy beginning of 2014, FibStalker

“FXStreet.com interview EUR/USD strategy beginning of 2014”, FibStalker

The material featured in the above video and the Blog education sections is related to and shows a new way to look at, study, analyze and trade high volume markets by spotting Algorithmic Trading footprints on price. The information and the methods presented are related to a framework used to “explain” price moves. The new approach helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they say they are doing). If you read and understand the information above, and follow my work, I promise you will learn to make the overwhelming presence of Program Trading in high volume markets working at your advantage. By learning how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints, you can gain a new, trading edge and finally beat Banks, Institutions and Hedge Funds, following a procedural approach.

If you like this video review, please share it with your friends and fellow traders (use the buttons at the end of the post). Thank you! …. Sharing is caring…

I send a free Newsletter in the weekend and provide updates throughout the week. The newsletter typically includes 3 video reviews for:

  • EUR/USD, Dollar Index, S&P500 e-mini and Gold e-mini;
  • the Japanese Yen majors, i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY;
  • the other majors: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & NZD/USD

plus other educational videos, news, articles and useful information. If you found the concepts presented above interesting and you want to see such concepts at work on the markets, please subscribe my free newsletter and also receive video analysis in daily and weekly reviews.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great weekend.

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Filed under Education, English language, Euro FX analysis and trade setups videos, Euro FX setups and trades, Event/Webinar, Forex, High Frequency Trading, Program Trading, Trading Method, Trading Plan, Trading Psychology

EDUCATION – Featured Guest Interviews at Dale Pinkert’s FXStreet LAR Room, January 3rd 2014 Update

Hello all,

I am honored and happy to have been the first trader to be interviewed by Dale Pinkert’s at the FXStreet.com LAR (Live Analysis Room) on June 3rd, 2013. This morning January 3rd, 2014 Dale invited me again at the FXStreet.com LAR (video).

Dale Pinkert is a trader with almost 40 years of experience who got his start in the trading business as a runner on the floor of the CME in 1975. Dale has great insights about the markets and leads a free room where he teaches trader. He is a former Member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (IOM Division), his market forecasts have been aired on major Financial Television and Radio station including CNBC. He went on to establish and operate Pinkert Commodities. Dale has been presenting his outlooks and teaching his methods on FXstreet.com for 4 years and has mentored both retail and prop traders. His trading motto is “If you don’t learn how to change your mind you won’t have any change left” from W.D. Gann.

I highly respect Dale who is a great person willing and working hard to help people on their trading journey. Dale’s Live Analysis Room is free of charge and it features great content, a few outstanding guests, interviews,  real-time market analysis and attendees active participation. You can access the room here.

After the initial interview that opened the doors of a very successful online initiative oriented to helping beginning, intermediate and expert traders analyzing the markets several more interviews have followed on June 10th, June 17th, August 6th, November 7th, 2013 and the latest on January 3rd, 2014

If what I do interests you, I suggest you watch the recorded interviews (see below) where I give details about my methods, successfully apply them to analysis of Forex majors and indices and share what Dale calls “pearls” of wisdom, as well as, market dynamics and understanding of market direction. I do this by applying methods that allow me to spot Algorithmic Trading footprints.

The five recorded interviews offer insights on the Euro and S&P500, including:

  • the way I analyze markets
  • how program trading acts on the weekly, daily and shorter timeframes and what to expect next
  • high frequency trading and how we can avoid it
  • the key concepts of successful trading and… more.

Hereunder are the links:

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary method based on modeling effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price.

My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they are saying they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints.

I send a free Newsletter in the weekend and provide updates throughout the week. The newsletter typically includes 3 video reviews for (1) EUR/USD, Dollar Index, S&P500 emini and Gold emini; (2) the Japanese Yen majors, i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY; (3) the other majors: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders (use the buttons below the article). Thank you!

If you want to receive such videos, please subscribe my free newsletter.

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Filed under Education, Event/Webinar, Forex, Futures, High Frequency Trading, Program Trading, Trading Goals, Trading Method, Trading Plan, Trading Psychology

EDUCATION – A trader’s Journey, December 17th, 2013

Hello traders,

this article sparkled from the comment of a fellow trader and follower and provides some information useful for your trading journey.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8ZN4L5p-pY

A trader’s journey

Trading is easy but not simple. As most of you have already realized the main problem is the education we go or went through, or we are obliged to go through and, especially, the lack of mentors who.

Finding a good mentor is not only a matter of luck, but also putting efforts into it and researching the internet wide and large, ask people, buy monthly services, etc.

Then there are the skills: 1) trading methodology, 2) money/risk management; 3) psychology.

I rate them as follows, in terms of importance:

  1. 10/15%
  2. 10%
  3. 75/80%

1) Trading Methodology: There are a different methods available: traditional technical analysis (?), price action (?), there–is–an–other–in–the–universe (cycles, Elliot), band trading (?), strategy trading, sentiment trading (?), program trading ().

You have been there and, maybe, tried different options, but do they really provide an edge? It is 50/50%, so people who make money with the majority of these methods do it because of superior MM and psychology and because they stick to the winners when they have good trades. Low reliability, high expectancy also due to large occasional R/R with a small, controlled risk. This is the secret for low reliability methods, you know it already. I deeply respect traders who can make consistently money using these methods. They are not a lot, though.

If you know my work a bit, you also know that I am a proponent of observing Program Trading (a powerful class of algorithmic trading) and guarding against HFT (especially in entries on 15min and lower). I have got into it before joining SIAT/IFTA and studied and researched it for a long period of time.

If you have time and are interested, watch a few videos on this blog, and you will get an idea of what I am talking about. Notice that the method only works on high volume instruments: forex majors, indices and commodities and high volume stocks. This is a very important point, because we need to make sure that Program Trading is active on the market we analyze and trade.

It is a brand new approach that attempts to spot Algorithmic Trading footprints and incorporates the traders` group psychology, so it makes it easier to trade with the natural market flow, which also means it is more difficult to trade, and it has certainly been for me at the beginning, because we all are mentally wired in a way very different from that required to be successful following Program Trading footprints. Program Trading is the way to go for me, it gives very good results and, as a matter of fact, methods based on algorithms are getting a lot of coverage on FXStreet.com, one of the largest global Forex portals, that has also recently awarded my efforts in this area .

2) Risk/Money Management: If you have good risk and money management (MM) in place you can can do well, provided you are disciplined, but if you want to do very well you have to have a good trading method too, with high reliability. Generally MM is not an issue. There are two aspects of it:

  1. having MM right for the market you trade and in relation to the type of entry you use (I have 4 classes of entries, on different timeframes, with variations that take into account all the cases that can actually materialize in price action);
  2. having an MM in place that allows you to grow your profits faster. I have studied this second aspect deeply in one of my research paper, which is available for free on this blog (browse the eBook & Papers section of the blog).

While the research paper focuses on the links between MM and trading goals, it shows two important things in the process:

  1. a rigorous methodology on how to study and simulate your system with different MM techniques, provided you know the trades results distribution (and you have more than 30 trades in it, but the more the better)
  2. a showcase on how to use market money techniques to boost profits. Nothing complicated in fact, which demonstrates that part 2 of MM above (i.e.having a way to grow profits faster) is not a big deal; however part 1 must be in place and done in the right way, which requires a method to firmly frame price dynamics.

3) Psychology: is the cat to skin. This is the real deal. We are wired to not perform correctly in the markets as we only want to get involved when we are sure about it (e.g. breakouts?), while we should get involved when the risk is minimal (e.g. on retracements). This requires acting when the fear is highest and confidence is lowest. Risk acceptance is key. Some people even propose to trade without a stop, in which case I do not understand how they do define their unit of risk, which is also fundamental to calculate the trading method’s expectancy . More power to them if it works for them (I doubt): it does not work for me.

Then we need to accept the principles and truths of the market (well explained in “Trading in the Zone”), which requires not just reading the book, but thinking a lot about it, relating its content to actual trading, taking notes, coming back after weeks, months and years, appreciating the changes, noticing what must be done still, and so on. This is the only way I know to internalize good psychology and behavior. I did this exercise, also studying other material, for more than 2 years. And I keep doing it.

This, and a lot of other work, must be done to undo and build the right psychology (e.g. study Van Tharp`s “Peak Performance Course”), but I still believe that the majority of success in managing our psychology in the right  way is just related to building confidence in a method that works (again, high reliability) and learn to stick to it. Much of the psychology work we need is related to “undoing” or “unwiring” our trading from what we would naturally do, or what we have learned in the past.

Do you want the proof?

Give a newbie a method that works and rules to trade it and manage risk properly and she will do exceptionally well! That will be the only way she will know how to trade as she will not have in her mind non–useful beliefs. She will probably be among the elite 5% traders in the world. I wish I had this benefit when I started.

Some readers asks for mentors` names. The following people helped me actively in the past or I have been able to get their attention:

  • Toni Hansen
  • Ivica Juracic
  • Van Tharp
  • DR Barton
  • Eugenio Sartorelli
  • Andrea Unger

It is difficult to find good mentors, but it is not impossible!

Finally, just study as much as possible in this blog. It also contains a lot of original research I have been doing on the markets. There are almost 400 videos with reviews and method explanation and I also share some of my research articles.

Hope this post will help you.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary way to frame price based on modeling the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price.

My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they are saying they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints.

I send a free Newsletter in the weekend and provide updates throughout the week. The newsletter typically includes 3 video reviews for (1) EUR/USD, Dollar Index, S&P500 e-mini and Gold e-mini; (2) the Japanese Yen majors, i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY; (3) the other majors: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you (use the buttons below the article). Sharing is caring…

If you want to receive such videos, please subscribe my free newsletter.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great day.

Till the next post

Giuseppe Basile, ~the FibStalker

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Filed under Articles, Education, English language, Money Management, Program Trading, Trading Method, Trading Psychology