I am publishing the updates for the Euro, S&P500 and Dollar Index, I have shared on April the 17th with my newsletter subscribers. I update this plan at least every week and I provide updates throughout the week. Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary method based on modeling effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price.
Euro FX futures contract
While lots of people think this is the start of a resumed move lower, I think this move lower is due to failure of a continuation higher in the lower timeframes.
Scenario 1. The upmove in the Euro is still intact and the current move lower is going to be an opportunity for bulls to add to their long positions. We have support starting at the 1.3040 area and if price does not pierce the 1.30 level, we could see a lift starting here into 1.3280 and then 1.3410 area before a larger retrace.
Scenario 2. If the 1.30 level is pierced on the downside price is going to move into the next area of anticipated long participation starting at 1.2980. Below 1.2926 there will still be the 1.2915-20 area of previous support.
S&P 500 emini futures
The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year.
Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Scenario 2. However, below 1,508 price could slide into the next larger (weekly) long setup and participation higher down at 1,416. I don’t think the FED will allow it at this stage.
Dollar Index futures
I am sure a lot of people are interpreting today’s move like a confirmation that the Dollar bulls is still intact. Last week, however, an important extension area starting at 83.20 has failed. Failure came with DX price piercing the 82 level on the downside. The current move higher is probably due only to major pairs (EUR/USD, GPB/USD and USD/CAD) setting up for the next measured move (maybe with the exception of the USD/CAD which is trading the next traditional long, after failing the current sequence). The Dollar Index is trading the next short setup and resistance area starting at 82.70 and will keep its bearish stance below 83.15.
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