Tag Archives: index

January 17th, 2013 Trading Plan for the S&P500 (English Language)

Hello traders,

I am sharing the trading plan for the S&P500 I have sent on January the 17th, to my newsletter subscribers in the mid-week update (see an example here) . I will update this plan on Wednesday with what I anticipate in the S&P500 going forward using the Program Trading rules found in my Trading Method.

‘The S&P500 hit first target at 1472, from the setup originating at the 1390 support area. The below picture shows the new potential scenario for the S&P500.

"Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward, January 17th, 2013"

“Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward, January 17th, 2013” (click to enlarge)

Price did not correct down into the 1427 or 1444 area, but hit a support area represented by a traditional with an entry in the 1459 area and first target at 1477 and second target at 1487. The first target was hit today and if price keeps moving higher we could see a relative high at 1487. After hitting the 1487 target, if price gets there, we could see a mild reaction into the next support and extension long at the 1480 area, with a first target in the 1491. We could also see a reaction lower into the 1473 area before a new move higher would start.’

I send a free Newsletter on Sundays and mid-week updates on Wednesdays along with other information. I typically share the content of the Mid-Week update in advance. The newsletter typically includes: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, my FibStalker View on Currencies focusing on Forex pairs, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

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Thank you in advance for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great evening.

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Last week’s (January 10th, 2013) Trading Plan for the S&P500 (English Language)

Hello traders,

I am sharing the trading plan for the S&P500 I have sent last week, on January the 10th, to my newsletter subscribers in the last mid-week update (see an example here) . I will update this plan today with what I expect in the S&P500 going forward using the Program and Algorithmic Trading rules found in my Trading Method.

‘The analysis for the S&P500 e-mini futures contract is the same as last week. S&P500 price held the 1390 level and is still headed into the 1472 target level. Based on the lateral price action of last week the Scenario 1 (see picture below). As it cab be seen from the below picture at the moment this contract is moving according to the first scenario which, as I indicated last week, was the more probable outcome. Although mostly lateral price as an upward bias and is continuing higher into the 1472 target. After that it could start a correction lower into the next support level in the 1427 area. Then price could then resume its move higher into the 1513 target.

Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward, January 10th, 2013

Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward, January 10th, 2013

Clearly scenario 1 above played out last week, trading 1471.50 very close to that 1472 area mentioned in the setup.

I send a free Newsletter on Sundays and mid-week updates on Wednesdays along with other information. This week I will send the mid-week update on Thursday (tonight) and you are still in time to subscribe (see what I am going to share tonight). The newsletter typically includes: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, my FibStalker View on Currencies focusing on Forex pairs, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

If you want to receive such videos, please subscribe my free newsletter.

Thank you in advance for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great evening.

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A Trading Plan for the Euro-Dollar FX currency futures going forward, Dec 12th (English Language)

Hello traders,

I have reviewed the high-level plan for the Euro-Dollar FX currency futures for the Mid-Week update of this week which I typically share only with my newsletter subscribers. Only for today I am sharing the plan on the blog, as well.

ast week the Euro kept moving lower into the all the way half way back at 1.2910 (on new March 2013 contract, it was 1.2900 on the December 2012 contract) that held and we saw higher prices since the beginning of the week.
The Euro now needs to keep moving in extensions higher otherwise there is a risk of a retracement back to the 1.3000 area. Thus the two scenarios I can see are the following (please refer to the below picture ).

Scenario 1: price keeps moving in extensions and never falls below the 1.3058 level. In this case we could see the 1.3250 target area hit by the end of the week.

Scenario 2: price falls below 1.3058 and moves into the 1.3000 support area and then resumes the move higher into 1.3250 and then 1.3440. If price trades into the all the way back to 1.3000 we will need to watch the 1.2970 level. Below it the 1.2910 support area could be retested for the second time (a dangerous test).

Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward”, December 12th, 2012

Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward”, December 12th, 2012

(Click here to enlarge)

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

I write a Newsletter I send over on Sundays along with other information, typically including: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, other Forex pairs, indices or commodities futures an some high volume stocks, as well as, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading, from which I derive my edge and market psychology. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

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A Trading Plan for the S&P500 going forward, Dec 12th (English Language)

Hello traders,

I have reviewed the high-level plan for the S&P500 for the Mid-Week update of this week which I typically share only with my newsletter subscribers. Only for today I am sharing the plan on the blog, as well.

The SPY ETF and the S&P500 e-mini (ES) index are offering discording views on whether the market has support below recent November lows. I am sticking to the S&P500 e-mini (ES) price and bulls defended the 1332-1358 area in this market. So I will consider the S&P500 e-mini futures contract bullish because bulls were able to defend the 1332 level. This causes Program Trading to look for targets above recent highs. This view is also in line with what we have in the Euro-Dollar cross, considering that the S&P500 and the Euro are trading in the same direction so far (no divergence).

Price kept moving higher in the last few days and a small correction now seems in the card.  I could identify two scenarios for the S&P500 (please refer to the below picture ).

Scenario 1: price keeps trading in extension longs and bounces off the 1423 area, staying above the 1419 (as I write futures market has opened with price right at the 1419.50 level).

Scenario 2: price retraces to the traditional support at 1410 and then bounces off the level into the 1450 area. Notice also that below 1404 a continuation lower into the 1390 area is also possible.

"A trading plan for the S&P500 going forward, December 12th, 2012"

“A trading plan for the S&P500 going forward, December 12th, 2012”

(Click here to enlarge)

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

I write a Newsletter I send over on Sundays along with other information, typically including: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, other Forex pairs, indices or commodities futures an some high volume stocks, as well as, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading, from which I derive my edge and market psychology. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

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A Trading Plan for the S&P500 going forward (English Language)

Hello traders,

This weekend I have reviewed the high-level plan for the S&P500 and I shared it with my newsletter subscribers. Given the importance of price behavior in the coming days on whether we are going to get a new rally in equities into 2013 or a collapse of the indices, I decided to share the content on the blog as well. I do not like terrifying people waving the possibility of a collapse in stocks, but it is a scenario we need to keep in mind. However we also have a more positive scenario and it is on the latter I am going to focus this week.

The two scenarios provided in the last published trading plan and in the November 22nd mid-week update (see email as well if you are a subscriber, otherwise look to the left and subscribe my free newsletter) are still valid. I believe it is very significant that price did not find, last Friday, a strong resistance in the 1404 area as we would have anticipated. This could well change this week and, indeed, this morning the 1404 participation on the downside is making feel its presence on price.

With a limited participation on the downside, price could easily continue higher slicing through the resistance area starting at 1404. If this were the case we would need to move our attention to scenario 2 (see picture below, the same of the old trading plan published last week on November 18th) which, as you will remember, was not my preferred one last week, but it could still take place. The first few days of this week will be key.

The second scenario (see picture below) takes place if price is capable of violating the 1419 level on the upside. In that case the crash scenario would be removed and price would move lower to retest the 1350-70 or higher area before starting the new leg higher. In this case there would be no divergence between the Euro and the S&P500, and the S&P500 would have the potential to print new highs this year or at the beginning of 2013, it would move together with the Euro.

"Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward", November 18th 2012

“Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward”, November 18th and 25th, 2012

(Click here to enlarge)

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

I write a Newsletter I send over on Sundays along with other information, typically including: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, other Forex pairs, indices or commodities futures an some high volume stocks, as well as, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading, from which I derive my edge and market psychology. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

Leave a comment

Filed under Articles, English language, Newsletter, S&P mini futures setups and trades, Trading Plan

A Trading Plan for the S&P500 going forward (English Language)

Hello traders,

I worked on a high-level plan for the S&P500 this weekend and I shared it with my newsletter subscribers. Given the importance of price behavior in the coming days on the possible outcomes we are going to get in 2013 (a collapse of the indices or a rally to new highs) I decided to share the content on the blog as well.

This week and the following one are going to be very important for the S&P500. Price behavior will make a huge difference for the US stock indexes and, for what matters, also for other world stock indices going forward. Formally the S&P500 defended the 1332 level which is a price area I am closely watching. Below this area we could confirm the US index collapse scenario I have posted on the Blog a few days ago. However, some other trading platforms report a violation of the 61% level as, for instance, ToS (Think or Swim). I will stick to the price levels and retracement offered by my TradeStation trading platform, and will consider the level *NOT* failed for now.

Hereunder I have the two scenarios for you to keep in mind (figure below). In the first scenario, price moves higher above the first level of resistance at 1366.50 and successfully tests the 1404 resistance. Then price starts moving lower again and moves below the 1330 level. At this point the collapse scenario would be confirmed and price would move into the 1.130-60 first area of support. You may want to watch the November 12th S&P500 analysis video to understand where this area of support is coming from.

"Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward", November 18th 2012

“Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward”, November 18th 2012

(Click here to enlarge)
The second scenario takes place if price is capable of violating the 1419 level on the upside. In that case the collapse scenario would be removed and price would move lower to retest the 1350-70 area before starting the new leg higher. In this case there would be no divergence between the Euro and the S&P500 index and the S&P500 would have the potential to print new highs this year or at the beginning of 2013.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

I write a Newsletter I send over on Sundays along with other information, typically including: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, other Forex pairs, indices or commodities futures an some high volume stocks, as well as, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading, from which I derive my edge and market psychology. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

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Cosa fara’ il Dollar Index? (Italian Language)

Gentile lettore e trader,

facendo seguito ad un articolo pubblicato il 28 Ottobre ‘Quale e’ la destinazione del prezzo dell’Euro?‘ domenica scorsa ho pubblicato nella mia newsletter un analisi di aggiornamento riguardante direzione e target di prezzo per il Dollar Index (spedita solamente ai sottoscrittori). Il Dollar Index e’ importante perche’ trada in direzione opposta al cambio Euro-Dollaro. Qui sotto trovate il testo orginiale dell’articolo:

Come spesso accade ci sono diverse opinioni nel mercato in questo momento. I manager dei fondi ‘long only‘ stanno scommettendo sulla QE3 (Quantitative Easing iniziata recentemente dalla FED), sperando che gli effetti si mostreranno sul prezzo ed il movimento verso l’alto degli indici azionari rincomincera’ nelle prossime settimane. Tuttavia il metodo di trading che utilizzo vede ancora setup al ribasso sull’S&P500. Alcuni analisti che seguono il conteggio dei cicli giornalieri, intermedi e di lungo termine (che potrebbero essere influenzati dal fortissimo intervento delle banche centrali) credono che l’S&P500 sia molto vicino ad un’inversione e si aspettano un massimo intermedio sul Dollaro. Inoltre c’e’ la possibilita’ di una divergenza tra l’Euro e l’indice S&P500 che si e’ presentata regolarmente agli inizi di Novembre negli ultimi 4 anni.

Se la divergenza tra cambio Euro-Dollaro ed indice S&P500 dovesse presentarsi anche quest’anno allora una possibile scenario sarebbe il seguente:

  • il Dollar Index si muoverebbe verso il basso (ma solo dopo aver completato il ciclo attuale al rialzo)
  • l’indice S&P500 (assieme agli indici azionari mondiali) si muoverebbe al ribasso insieme all’indice Dollar Index (e non al rialzo come accade normalmente quando l’indice S&P500 scende, per via della divergenza menzionata)
  • il cambio Euro-Dollaro si muoverebbe al rialzo (in linea con le indicazioni ed analisi del mio Metodo di Trading)

Cosi’, mentre gli indici potrebbero divergere temporaneamente dalla direzione del Dollaro, il cambio Euro-Dollaro continuerebbe comunque a muoversi in direzione opposta al Dollaro. L’immagine qui sotto mostra la possibilita’ di un massimo intermedio nel grafico del Dollar Index, che potrebbe verificarsi nei prossimi giorni (o settimane). Concordemente a tale visione il prezzo del Dollar Index potrebbe fermarsi in corrispondenza della media semplice a 200 giorni e questo scenario e’ allineato con la nostra analisi e piani per l’Euro.

"Massimo del ciclo intermedio per il Dollar Index" - fonte: www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.it

“Massimo del ciclo intermedio per il Dollar Index” – fonte: http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.it

La cosa che non sappiamo e’ a quale livelli di prezzo questo atteso movimento del Dollar Index sara’ in grado di spingere il prezzo dell’Euro. Sara’ l’area in 1.2820 oppure l’area in 1.2620? Durante la settimana saro’ piu’ preciso.’

Ho accompagnato l’articolo qui sopra con un’analisi video del Dollar Index (che ho condiviso solamente con i sottoscrittori) usando il mio metodo per verificare se le predizioni dell’analisi ciclica sono in qualche modo confortate da quanto si puo’ evincere dallo studio della struttura del prezzo. Terro’ il Dollar Index sotto controllo e inviero’ aggiornamenti ai sottoscrittori della mia newsletter gratuita.

Se decidete di operare sulla base di queste informazioni vi invitiamo a cercare il consiglio di un esperto in trading e a fare le proprie analisi e ricerche. Questo materiale e’ fornito solamente a scopi educativi. Siete pregati di leggere il Disclaimer e accettare tutti i rischi.

Avete l’esigenza di prepararvi per la vostra settimana di trading e volete ascoltare una opinione differente sullo strumento finanziario che seguite? Vi state avvicinado al trading e volete incominciare nel modo giusto ? Volete capire di piu’ dei metodi di trading che uso basati su Movimenti Misurati e sulla tecnica proprietaria dello Stalking di Fibonacci per il trading direzionale di futures, forex e azioni? Allora consiglio l’iscrizione alla mia newsletter gratuita e un frequente accesso ai contenuti di questo blog.

Se desiderate ricevere l’accesso ai contenuti e alle video-analisi il prima possibile ogni fine settimana, vi invito a sottoscrivere la mia newsletter. E’ gratuita e ci sono contenuti addizionali come commenti, setup su forex e futures, e-books, articoli e piani di trading, materiale per imparare il trading e analisi video che normalmente non pubblico sul mio blog. Ad esempio, questa settimana inviero’ un’analisi dettagliata sul cambio Euro-Dollaro a meta’ settimana.

Sottoscrivete la mia newsletter gratuita per avere accesso alle mie idee di trading ed imparare a tradare.

Vi ringrazio in anticipo se deciderete di iscrivervi. Molte altre persone lo hanno gia fatto!

A presto

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