Tag Archives: trading plan

Article: “With the presence of Algorithms the markets have changed. How do you cope?” – May 5, 2014

Hey, FibStalker here.

As you may know I am not a big fan of traditional technical analysis. Why? You cannot win in the markets and make returns that can turn relatively small trading accounts into important amounts in a reasonable time (2-3 years).

No Paradise
Let’s face it, this is what all of us want. Isn’t it?

But you cannot do it with average cross-overs, indicators, pivots, trend lines or even the “modern” technical tools and indicators, all of which largely lag price, do not provide a trading plan, need to reconciled, etc. etc. But still the majority of traders rely on traditional TA alone, rather than studying and understanding price market structure, which is still considered very sophisticated, if considered at all. Today you have more tools, but still 95% of traders are loss-making.

Wonder why? In short, the simple ways of the past and modern TA tools and indicators are not capable of consistently identifying low-risk setups. Plus the available reward/risk ratios are relatively low. There is no “promised paradise” in such conditions.

Markets have changed
Now if you add on top of this that the presence of automated Algorithms (Algos) has changed the markets in the last 20-30 years, traditional TA looks less useful than ever.

The markets have changed, what does it means for you and your trading? This means that high-volume financial instruments (futures, forex, stocks, bonds) now expose price behavior and a structure that can be leveraged to improve trading decisions;

So it is all bad news? No, not at all. It is good news instead. Yes because you can use that price structure to help you not only identifying reversal areas well in advance and with precision. You can do much more…

What can you Do by Knowing Price Structure?
You can identify level where participation from Algos is expected and then test those areas. These are areas of low-risk setups that can be timed in the smaller timeframe in a totally procedural fashion. I call this technique the FibStalking Timing and I have authored it.

Sounds complex or impossible? Not at all. When you master price structure analysis based on the effects of algorithms (Algos), your trading gets pushed to the top…to the level of the Elite 5% of professional traders, who make money consistently.

You Can Become a Consistent Trader
Becoming expert in recognizing effects of Algos on price and taking advantage of it is not difficult. Anyone can do it. There’s just a specific process a set of tasks or “formula”, if you like it, that you have to follow.

A formula that most people are clueless about, as they are of the overwhelming presence and power of Algos and Program Trading (a peculiar family of algorithms) that can be leveraged for consistent gains and to create and maintain a prolonged trading success…

The playing field is completely level on this matter. People I work with come to me telling they have never witnessed my method. Trading based on effects of Algos on price is little known, if know at all by retail traders.

A lot of unique, effective and proprietary research has gone into this field to which I have dedicated over 10,000 hours since 2006, almost half of my total market exposure of 18,000 hours. I am an IFTA associate with 3 published papers and a 4th one to be published in July.

But isn’t trading difficult?
Trading is difficult only if you try to trade according to non-grounded market behaviors. TA has nothing to do with market behavior and price structure. An indicator or signal derived by one or more indicators are only representation of statistical tables of failure and success with a random probability.

Add mistakes, discording signals not reconciled consistently, mistakes, costs of trading, lack of discipline, lack of risk and money management and you should not be surprised that 95% of traders lose money in the markets (yes, confirmed, that is the number — I demonstrated it in my free webinar: “How to get and stay into the Elite 5%” , see below)

I suggest the full series of webinars on FXStreet.com.

See when you stop trading the non-sense you can be successful without having years of experience in the markets. And actually the lesser the experience, the easier is to grasp the counter-intuitive concepts in the FibStalker Methods Coaching Program.

Can You Really Make it?
My honest and helpful suggestion for you, if you want to start or re-start in trading, is to have a look at the benefits of the 7 months Program, and what it means for your trading. You can learn how to identify levels of potential participation from Algos and then how to time the reversal setups procedurally, with no initial money at risk and only after confirmation.

It does not get better than this. It is the market action itself “sucking you into” a valid position, aligned with the Psychology of the Markets. Plus you will learn to use proprietary tools and advanced techniques like the FibStalking Timing.

If you want to learn a complete approach to professional trading, including Advanced timing, analyzing and finally understanding price structure and what you can expect and anticipate on all timeframes, performing price discovery to know what is likely to happen consider joining my May 2015 session starting on Saturday May 30, 2015.

Learn to identify and validate solid, low-risk trading plans, write your own trading system based on the proven components that I will provide you with. In the program I will also help you finally installing a mental model to become a consistent trader.

You just have to know what the formula is and then follow it. I am making this formula available to a growing number of satisfied traders and at a price and with value that you will never seen again.

In fact, not only I am offering a discount but a new intraday trading system and value for $2,000 on top of the Coaching Program. Check my offer here. It all ends on May 29, 2015:

–> May 2015 Offer for the FibStalker Methods Coaching Program – DONT’ MISS IT! <–

As usual, let me know what you think by leaving an email at: fibstalker at gmail.com or a post on my blog.

Below the link to my newsletter if you want to learn more about my methods and my edge in the markets.

Have a great day.

The FibStalker Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

 

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Article: “Never forget the Market can do Anything” – November 19, 2014

20131205_market can do anything

Dear all,
I often find myself and other traders and students I work with to never forget that the Market can do Anything.
Indeed, most of the things and concepts of trading that I have learned or unlearned in the years had to do with the two following concepts:
1) designing my strategy so that I could  cope with anything the market could throw at me — yes, because the “Market can do Anything” (and I would not end up ‘holding the bag’ because price would move and remain below my entry point)

2) incorporate proper and enhanced risk management so that the possibility of 1) happening is low or non-existent — a level of risk management that the majority would not be ready to accept, like exiting half of the position once the gain on the position reaches a level where it equals the trading risk.

Thus I believe the majority of retail traders do not understand or realize that you *MUST* cope with the master principle that “Market can do Anything”, while I often hear words like “expect”, “assume” and even “know” that the price can do this or that.
Words are powerful, and you should be very careful because you need to *think* something before you say it. And if you think you can expect, assume and even know what price is going to do next, well…. you will be lost — statistically and practically becoming part of the 95% group of retail traders who do not make money in the markets, but rather lose consistently.

The market is “Always Right”, if you address it with a “fixed number of pip risk”, or any other type of assumption of expectations, you will fail. Full stop.
Let the market pick the pip risk, the trading plan and all the rest: you must understand how the market is moving (normally, extended, are algos holding their anchors, etc.)
On the risk side of things, the majority of traders also do not understand that this is a game that you win in defense. You must consistently take small risks and increase the reliability and expectancy of your method. Risk management is a constant and there are ways to improve it. The problem is that you cannot just avoid optimizing risk because you only have access to a method that — being based on traditional technical analysis — can only offer R/R<=3 trades with low probability of hitting the targets.
When you start with such a disadvantage and do not get involved at the beginning of a move (the best way to manage risk too) you will think that the only way to make good return in trading is to increase risk and, maybe, even use leverage (I am *AGAINST* the use of leverage in trading, and it is not needed)…

A smart follower wrote the following to me today in relation to a level I mentioned a few days ago in the EUR/USD before it materialized: “Have a question… you had predicted EUR/USD to 1.21ish and before that to 1.26. We technically touched 1.26 today, but not over 1.26. Do you think now down to 1.21 before any uptrend ?

This question offers me the opportunity — before I offer the answer — for some speculation on the way I think about trading. For me price analysis is a balances of forces. Typically when a level or area of participation by Algos is reached I wait for a confirmation. Basically the Algorithms on the smaller timeframe, driving the counter-trend move into the important level of participation, have to show me that they give the way to the larger timeframe. The larger timeframe wins often, but not all the time. And those time when it does not win, summed to the resulting highest reliability and expectancy that can be obtained by trading right at the FibStalker levels, adds up a lot! Both in the area of winners percentage and R/R values.

So here below is my answer:

“The way my method works is that when I get price into the level of interest, where I anticipate participation for algos on the larger timeframe, I look at what happens on the smaller timeframes.

Imagine 1.26 like a potential barrier where sellers on the larger timeframe can come back into the market again. But nothing is guaranteed int the market. So at these levels I become more vigilant and switch to the smaller timeframe.
To know whether shorts will be successful they need to be strong enough to win the buyers that have pushed the market higher in the last few days.
There are two set of sequences of moves higher that matter at the moment: one on the 4-hour and the other on the 15min.

What I do then is checking if and when these counter-trend sequences fail, as an effect of new shorts that can potentially come in into the markets at the 1.26.

We all know all the information in advance and I use the FibStalking Timing Technique to verify where the 4-hour and 15min sequences fail, if they fail.

So generally there are two scenarios: 1) the sequences fail and the FibStalking timing tells you the exact confirmation level (is a well-defined price level) that tells you when the counter-trend move is not valid any more. That’s the time you must get involved in a short.

Using the confirmation level you get involved in very good spots with high R/R and only after confirmation. This is why trading with the Algos is so convenient and traditional TA is not capable of offering such high R/R trades.

On the other hand it can happen that the counter-trend sequences on the 4-hour and 15min remain intact and no-one shows up at 1.26. In this case you don’t have money at risk and the market can do whatever it wants. I will just wait.

I only get involved in the markets at my own conditions (because after you are in the market can do anything).

Now the good point is that when the counter-trend move fails below or above a FibStalker level, price momentum in the direction of the trade is strong enough to generate a free-risk trade.

If you understand trading and risk management, you know that generating a free-risk trade from a low risk retrace is your job #1 as a trader.

And that’s what I attempt to do. Once I have a free-risk trade I also have a free mind and I can go to think to something else. Because either the market hits my swing profit target or closes me at breakeven minus costs and slippage.

PS: I teach the mechanical and totally procedural way to time FibStalker levels like the 1.26 in the EUR/USD in my multi-month Coaching Program. Drop me an email at fibstalker at gmail.com and ask for information.

As usual, let me know what you think by leaving an email at: fibstalker at gmail.com or a post on my blog.

Below the link to my newsletter if you want to learn more about my methods and my edge in the markets.

Have a great day.

The FibStalker Giuseppe, ~the FibStalker

 

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Filed under Articles, Coaching Program, Education, Forex, Market Timing, Money Management, Risk Management, Trading Method, Trading Plan

This weekend in my free Newsletter, February 2nd 2014

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter issue I am going to send out tonight Sunday, February 2nd, 2o13:

  • FOREX & FUTURES – Video analysis, commentary and review for: EUR/USD, S&P500, DX & GOLD
  • FOREX – Update on the EUR/USD Blueprint for the beginning of 2014
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD
  • EDUCATION: EUR/USD Bluerprint for the beginning of 2014: all the videos, interviews and relevant blog posts to follow and profit from price development in EUR/USD, since Jan 3rd, 2014
  • EDUCATION: information on my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior”
  • REVIEW: access to six previous issues of the Newsletter

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss the video reviews and the other educational information . The Newsletter is free and you can use the link below to subscribe to it, it only takes few seconds.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary way to frame price based on modeling the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price. My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they say they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints on high volume markets.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great day, and see you soon!

Giuseppe Basile, ~the FibStalker

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Filed under English language, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Weekly review

This weekend in my free Newsletter, January 26th 2014

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter issue I am going to send out tonight Sunday, January 26th, 2o13:

  • FOREX & FUTURES – Video analysis, commentary and review for: EUR/USD, S&P500, DX & GOLD, with analysis on the smaller timeframes
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD
  • EDUCATION: EUR/USD Bluerpring for the beginning of 2014: all the videos, interviews and relevant blog posts to follow and profit from price development in EUR/USD, since Jan 3rd, 2014
  • EDUCATION: information on my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior”
  • REVIEW: access to six previous issues of the Newsletter

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss the video reviews and the other educational information . The Newsletter is free and you can use the link below to subscribe to it, it only takes few seconds.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary way to frame price based on modeling the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price. My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they say they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints on high volume markets.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great day, and see you soon!

Giuseppe Basile, ~the FibStalker

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Filed under English language, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Weekly review

This weekend in my free Newsletter, January 19th 2014

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter issue I am going to send out tonight Sunday, January 19th, 2o13:

  • FOREX & FUTURES – Video analysis, commentary and review for: EUR/USD, S&P500, DX & GOLD, with analysis on 240min and 15min timeframes for EUR/USD
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD
  • EDUCATION: EUR/USD Bluerpring for the beginning of 2014: all the videos, interviews and relevant blog posts to follow and profit from price development in EUR/USD, since Jan 3rd, 2014
  • EDUCATION: information on my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior”
  • REVIEW: access to six previous issues of the Newsletter

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss the video reviews and the other educational information . The Newsletter is free of charge and you can use the link below to subscribe  to it.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary way to frame price based on modeling the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price. My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they say they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints on high volume markets.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great day, and see you soon!

Giuseppe Basile, ~the FibStalker

Leave a comment

Filed under English language, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Weekly review

This weekend in my free Newsletter, January 12th 2014

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter issue I am going to send out tonight Sunday, January 12th, 2o13:

  • FOREX & FUTURES – Video analysis, commentary and review for: EUR/USD, S&P500, DX & GOLD, with analysis on 240min and 15min timeframes for EUR/USD and S&P500
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD
  • EDUCATION: A strategy for the EUR/USD for the beginning of 2014: recorded interview on January 3rd, 2014 at Dale Pinkert’s FXStreet.com LAR
  • EDUCATION: information on my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior”
  • REVIEW: access to six previous issues of the Newsletter

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss the video reviews and the other educational information . The Newsletter is free of charge and you can use the link below to subscribe  to it.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary way to frame price based on modeling the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price. My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they say they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints on high volume markets.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great day, and see you soon!

Giuseppe Basile, ~the FibStalker

Leave a comment

Filed under English language, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Weekly review

This weekend in my free Newsletter, January 4th 2014

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter issue I am going to send out this weekend Sunday, January 5th, 2o13:

  • FOREX & FUTURES – Video analysis, commentary and review for: EUR/USD, S&P500, DX & GOLD
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY
  • FOREX – Video analysis, commentary and review for: GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD
  • EDUCATION: recorded interview on January 3rd, 2014 at Dale Pinkert’s FXStreet.com LAR
  • EDUCATION: information on my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior”
  • REVIEW: access to six previous issues of the Newsletter

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss the video reviews and the other educational information . The Newsletter is free of charge and you can use the link in the image below to subscribe  to it.

Notice that price projections in my method are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary way to frame price based on modeling the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price. My method helps “level plain” the trading game showing what banks, institutions and big hedge funds are actually doing (and not what they say they are doing). Follow me to learn how to spot the Algorithmic Trading footprints on high volume markets.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great day, and see you soon!

Giuseppe Basile, ~the FibStalker

Leave a comment

Filed under English language, Forex, Futures, Newsletter, Weekly review