Monthly Archives: June 2013

Tonight in my free Newsletter, June 30th 2013

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter I am going to send out tonight Sunday, June 23rd:

  • EDUCATION: links to my 3 interviews I had with Dale Pinkert’s in his Live Analysis Room
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Updated Plan for the Euro FX currency futures going forward
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Updated  Plan for the S&P500 index going forward and inter-market conside
  • FUTURES & FOREX – Weekly Review: long-term review of Euro, Dollar Index, S&P500 futures and USD/CAD forex pair
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: updated  Trading Plans Euro, Dollar Index, S&P500 futures and USD/CAD forex pair
  • FOREX – Market commentary: analysis and forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD  forex pairs
  • EDUCATION: Article: addressing the markets with a simple strategy
  • EDUCATION: a new video on my “Fibonacci Stalking” technique
  • EDUCATION: get my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior” and related discussions

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss great education and trading/actions plans. The newsletter it’s free. Keep reading.

I put every effort I can into offering newsletter content free of mistakes and both in English and Italian languages. However some articles or reviews will only be in English (or Italian) and, from time to time, there will be refuses, so I ask you to be patient. Anyway, with time I will try to have cleaner content available in both languages .

I will only post timely and detailed updates of trading plans in my free newsletter. Register for free here.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please make sure you have read the Disclaimer and accepted all the involved risks.

Thank you.

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Filed under Articles, Euro FX setups and trades, Futures, Newsletter, S&P mini futures setups and trades, Weekly review

A trader’s best strategy, what do you think? – June 29th 2013

Good morning all,

I recently received an email from a reader M.K. with relation to his best trading strategy. Hereunder is the body of the email I have received, in relation to his/her methodology:

“My best trading strategy…

intraday
1. prv.close less than prv.range – weak, else strong
2. weak stock: open less than close it is very weak, else very strong
3. strong stock: open greater than close it is very strong
4 chart observations to follow:
a) watch for higher low’s for buying
b) watch for lower high’s for selling

very weak buy above average of (yday close and today open)

very strong sell below average of yday close and today open”

Hereunder are some comments I have provided:

1. I like the fact you don’t use the indicators and you have a simple plan

Please think about the following:
2. you are looking only at the previous bar. In my opinion, this is too short sighted. It is important to look at what is happening in the larger timeframe as well. What is price doing in the weekly timeframe? What if you have a closer area of strong or confirmed support or resistance in the daily timeframe ? What if price is in a sequence of moves up or down on a timeframe larger than 1 day?
3. Define what a weak stock is. Less than close: how much is that 0.2%, 0.5%, 1%?
4. Define what a strong stock is. Greater than close: how much is that 0.2%, 0.5%, 1%?
5. Chart observations: are simple and well defined
6. Again what very weak means, how much? Can you provide a measure?
7. What very strong sell means, how much? Can you provide a measure?
8. Unfortunately as it is defined at this stage the method cannot be replicated and its effectiveness, reliability and expectancy cannot be measured. But it can surely be improved in this area.
9. It’s a good starting point and you will probably need to add more details and make the method replicable and measurable.

10. Moreover, what is your risk? Where do you exactly enter? Where is your stop? Where will you take partial profits? Where you will exit the full position?

11. Do you have an entry technique, do you filter your entries if so how?

12. What is your risk? How do you define your 1R? Is that 0.5%, 1% or 5% of your account?

13. What are your trading goals? Do you have written objectives? Do you have the psychology in place to follow your strategy?

What is your take? Please answer below or let me know it on Twitter.

Thank you.

If you want to follow my trades, please check the updates I sent by email to my (free) Newsletter subscribers from Sunday to Thursday.

If you want to have  access to trading plans, get updates and information on setups (before they happen) for the Euro-Dollar cross and the S&P500 index please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content like market commentaries, setups, e-books, articles on HFT and program trading, learning material on my method and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

Have a good day

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Filed under Articles, English language, Money Management, Stocks, Trading Goals, Trading Method, Trading Plan, Trading Psychology

Current Setups and related outcomes, June 23rd 2013

Dear traders,

at the beginning of June I have started providing updates on trades/setups for the Euro FX futures, the Dollar Index futures, the S&P500 e-mini futures and the USD/CAD forex pair ONLY to my newsletter subscribers. The update usually ships as a video of 5min or less, with commentary or notes about how to handle trades. On Sundays I add a trading plan for the daily timeframes.

In this post I am reporting on the two trade setups since June the 6th (the posts and related videos are posted with 2 weeks delay so, please, subscribe my newsletter. See how at the end of this post, it takes only 10 seconds). Some trades worked well and others were stopped out, but we are actually ahead, thanks to proper money/risk management. Hereunder I am providing some details:

If your unit of risk (1R) was 1% and took half of the position at the 1st targets (0.5% gain) and the remaining at the indicated Exit, you had now:

Euro FX futures contract: +2.94R (gain), -1R (loss) for a total of +1.94R

USD/CAD forex pair: -1R (loss)

S&P500 e-mini: +0.23R (gain), +0.5R(gain), half open position and a free-risk trade

If your unit of risk (1R) was 1% and did not take half of the position off at the 1st targets but only at the indicated Exit or at break/even, you had now:

Euro FX futures contract: +4.88R (gain), -1R (loss) for a total of +3.88R

USD/CAD forex pair: -1R (loss)

S&P500 e-mini: 0R (exit at break/even), full open position (stop at break even)

If you want to follow my trades, please check the updates I sent by email to my (free) Newsletter subscribers from Sunday to Thursday.

If you want to have  access to trading plans, get updates and information on setups (before they happen) for the Euro-Dollar cross and the S&P500 index please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content like market commentaries, setups, e-books, articles on HFT and program trading, learning material on my method and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all the risks. Thank you.

Have a good day

Leave a comment

Filed under English language, Euro FX analysis and trade setups videos, Euro FX setups and trades, Forex, Futures, S&P mini futures setups and trades, Trading Method

Tonight in my free Newsletter, June 23rd 2013

Hello all,

this is an anticipation of what you will read in my free weekly Newsletter I am going to send out tonight Sunday, June 23rd:

  • EDUCATION: links to my 3 interviews I had with Dale Pinkert’s in his Live Analysis Room
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Updated Plan for the Euro FX currency futures going forward
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: Updated  Plan for the S&P500 index going forward and inter-market conside
  • FUTURES & FOREX – Weekly Review: long-term review of Euro, Dollar Index, S&P500 futures and USD/CAD forex pair
  • FUTURES – Market commentary: updated  Trading Plans Euro, Dollar Index, S&P500 futures and USD/CAD forex pair
  • FOREX – Market commentary: analysis and forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD  forex pairs
  • EDUCATION: a new video on my “Fibonacci Stalking” technique
  • EDUCATION: get my free eBook “Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior” and related discussions

If you have not yet subscribed my Newsletter, don’t miss great education and trading/actions plans that could make you hundreds of pips on the EUR/USD or 100+ points in the S&P500! The newsletter it’s free. Keep reading.

I put every effort I can into offering newsletter content free of mistakes and both in English and Italian languages. However some articles or reviews will only be in English (or Italian) and, from time to time, there will be refuses, so I ask you to be patient. Anyway, with time I will try to have cleaner content available in both languages .

I will only post timely and detailed updates of trading plans in my free newsletter. Register for free here.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

If you intend using this information for your trading please do your own due diligence, find the advice of a trading professional and trade at your own responsibility. The information provided is for educational purpose only. Please make sure you have read the Disclaimer and accepted all the involved risks.

Thank you.

Leave a comment

Filed under Articles, Euro FX setups and trades, Futures, Newsletter, S&P mini futures setups and trades, Weekly review

Past FibStalker View on Stocks, March 11th, 2013 (English Language)

Hello,

hereunder is the last review on the stocks I featured in my FibStalker View on Stocks sent on March 11th, 2013 to my Newsletter subscribers. I will normally publish this information reviews 8-15 days after they are shared with subscribers. The FibStalker View on Stocks review offers insights into stocks trading, setups and target information for the list of stocks I currently follow on my Blog.  If you trade stocks or want to learn how to analyze them it is good to get the information I share every now and then. To do that you can register my free Newsletter, it only take 10 seconds.

The current list includes: AAPL, ACN, BAC, BBRY (ex-RIMM), BIDU, C, F, FB, GOOG, GS, HPQ and NFLX. Hereunder is the review I have published on March 11th, 2013:

This week I continue on this new section where I review a set stocks I am currently following and that you can find on my Blog’s ‘Stocks & ETFs’ page (this is an ever growing list of tickers). I will build upon the last analysis published to my subscribers on February 3rd Newsletter. I will keep adding stocks to this page and I am open to subscribers’ suggestions, with the only constraint that the proposed stocks must be widely followed and highly participated (high daily volume bigger than 1M) for my analysis and trading method to work. For instance, last week I have added Facebook (FB) to my list, which is now featured.

This week I will briefly review AAPL, ACN, BAC, BBRY(w), BIDU, C(w), F(w),  FB(w), GS(w), HPQ(w) and NFLX. The stocks with a (w=watch) after the ticker are those you want to closely monitor in the coming days because they could offer opportunities in the very short term on the daily chart. You can review the last video-analysis and plans for the stocks using the links provided below on the right of the stock ticker.
Hope you will enjoy this new section. Please spend time to study the setups and review the video-analysis I will keep recording in order to understand how I analyze price. This week I will briefly review AAPL(w), ACN, BAC(w), BIDU (w), C, F,  FB(w), GS, HPQ (w), NFLX and RIMM(w). The stocks with a (w=watch) after the ticker are those you want to closely monitor in the coming days because they could offer opportunities in the very short term on the daily chart. You can review the last video-analysis and plans for the stocks using the links provided below on the right of the stock ticker.
Hope you will enjoy this new section. Please spend time to study the setups and review the video-analysis I will keep recording in order to understand how I analyze price.

AAPL (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
There are no more doubts now that the stock is moving into its all the way low to highs retrace at the 350 area. It is currently trading a 483 resistance area and entry long with targets at 412 and then 375. If price bounces off the 412 level after hitting the target we could see a retrace into the next resistance level and entry short at the 448 area with a new target into the 396 area; otherwise we could see a continued slide into the second target at 376 before a meaningful and tradeable short.

ACN (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
As anticipated the stock hit the current measured move long first target at 75.30 and is continuing towards the second target at the 81 area. If it retraces after hitting that second target, we could see a new long extension setup at 76.50 with two new targets at 83.30 and 86.80.

BAC (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
Although price pierced the indicated 11.50 level on the downside in the last few weeks, price also held the long setup at 11.20 (with a stop below 10.90). So support in the stock is still holding and was able to push price higher all the way into the weekly resistance again, located at 12.40. Price again reacted at that level showing that sellers are still willing to sell the 12.40. At the moment this stock is range bound between 11.20 and 12.40. Longs have traded but short have traded too. Be careful.

BBRY (last analyzed on February 21st,2013)
(data problems for BBRY due to change of ticker: previous ticker was RIMM. It was analyzed on the Mid-Week update sent on February the 21st, 2013).

The stock is completing a test of the 12.30 support level with a stop below 10.80, the line in the sand. If the 12.30 area holds and price moves away from this level the first target is at 21.10 area. Below 10.80 the stock will need to be re-evaluated.

BIDU (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
After the gap down the stock kept moving lower and bounced from a long-term support level at 87.90. This support, however, was not enough to break the next traditional short setup on the daily. In fact price traded a traditional short with resistance and entry short in the 93.40 area, with a stop above 95. The long-term support at 87.90 would have had to break that 95 level to restore trust in longs, but this hasn’t happened. The current daily short setup has a first target at 84.50 helping prices lower into that 74.45, which is the first target of the larger short area located at the 110.30 area.

C (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
After trading into the that 44.40 level indicated in the last two reviews, price retraced all the way into the long setup in the 40.90 area. Price also briefly dipped below that 40.30 level of stop (with a low at 40.28) when the general market (S&P500) traded into its next measured move long, and then moved higher touching again the 44.40 first target level and continuing towards and hitting the second level at 46.30. If the stocks takes a breather here it could come into the next extension measured move long at 45.75 with a stop below 45.45 and targets in the 47.10 area (1st target) and 47.90 area (2nd target).

F (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
Ford failed the sequence of measured moves higher on the daily chart and is definitely under-performing the general market. The 13.20 is a resistance level and if price stays below it a good short would be at around 13.10 with a stop above 13.50 bringing price into the 11.60 level. Above 13.50 we can return back to the 13.90 area of resistance and find sellers again. But if price continues higher the target would be the 15.40 area. I consider current support at 12 a bit dodgy because it come from a non-valid trace, i.e. a retrace that Program Trading would not take into consideration. Unfortunately the situation is still unclear. Price would have found support at 11.60 I would be more prone to think that last week’s rally had legs.

FB (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
The stock was pushed higher into the next area of resistance starting at 29.20 but stopped below it at 29.08 and kept moving lower. The first target at 26.10 has not been hit just yet and the 29.20 area of resistance, with a stop above 29.80 is still valid. The targets for the lager move lower is at 11.10, which will be confirmed if price moves below 23.20.

GS (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
The correction in the general market brought the stock price down at the 147 area well above that 142.90 area indicated in the last review. The anchor being used by Program Trading to trade this stock could not be foreseen before the fact. The current long setup at 147 has stops below 144.10, and first target in the 164.50 area.  The inner move higher in the last week is showing support at 151.90 with a stop at 150.50. If price stays above the latter level (150.50) the stock can be traded with targets at 159.70 (1st target, previous highs) and then 163.80 (2nd target) helping price into the 164.50 long target.

HPQ (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
The bullish scenario that was still open in the last review played out. Price was supported in the 16.20 area and never came below the 15.80 threshold. Price gapped up right at that 18 area (1st target) indicated and traded to and through the 19 area (2nd target). This is a very important development, because now this stock has the potential to trade all the way into 33.10. The next extension long on the daily chart shows support at 20.60 with a stop below 20.35, with targets at 21.60 (1st target) and 22.20 (2nd target). Below 20.35 we could see price retrace into the 19.40 area (with a stop below 18.90) which could bring price higher into the 22.20, on its way to 33.10.

NFLX (last analyzed on February 17th, 2013)
Price is still in that large resistance area starting at 179 and could move all the way into the 209 level. Price is supported by the 174.80 area with a stop below 174.35. This setup has already traded to the 1st target at the 196 area indicated in the last review. If price stays above 174.35 we could retest that 196 area and move higher into the second target into the 206.40 level. Below 174.35 level we could see a larger retrace lower. If you are in a long, let profits run.’

Need to prepare for your trading week or just want to get a different opinion on the financial instruments you follow? Are you new to trading and want to start with the right steps. Do you want to understand more on how I use my method based on measured moves inferred by observing the effects of Program Trading on price and the proprietary Fibonacci Stalking technique for directional trading of index, forex and hedging futures, forex pairs and some high-volume stocks?

If you want to have access to the content and watch the video reviews as soon as possible, as well as, receive the material every weekend, please subscribe my newsletter. It’s free and you get additional content, comments, setups, e-books, articles, learning material and video-analysis that I don’t make available on my blog. Tomorrow too I am going to send out a special mid-week assessment of the Euro-Dollar cross, the Dollar Index and the S&P500 index, along with actionable trading plans for the Euro and the S&P500.

Subscribe my free newsletter to get ideas on stocks, forex and futures setups and learn to analyze price and supply and demand.

Thank you for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

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Filed under English language, Newsletter, Stocks, Trading Plan, Weekly review

Past (March 11th, 2013) Trading Plan for the S&P500 e-mini (English Language)

Hello Traders,

I am publishing the trading plan for the S&P500 e-mini I have shared on March the 11th, to my newsletter subscribers (published in the last mid-week update, you can see an example here) . I update this plan every evening from Sunday to Thursday in my free Newsletter. Notice that price projections you will find hereunder are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary Trading Method based on the observation of the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price (see David Halsey’s work).

‘Last week scenario 2 played out and price keep moving higher into the first target at 1,544 because the 1,489 area of support was already tested successfully. The second target is higher at 1,576.
The inner move on the daily chart had support in the 1499 area and price never moved below 1,493. This long setup hit both first and second targets, respectively at 1,530 and 1,546,last week.

The following two scenarios were identified (refer to the below picture):

Picture – “Trading plan scenarios for the S&P500 index moving forward (daily chart) – March 10th, 2013″

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next extension long measured move on the daily chart and then resumes it’s move higher into the first target at 1,554 and then into the second target at 1,564, helping price into the final target at 1,576.

Scenario 2. Price corrects deeper into the 1522 area and then resumes the move higher towards the 1,576 target.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.’

I send a free Newsletter from Sunday to  Thursdays along with other information. Tonight I am going to send the Sunday’s issue offering a long-term view (weekly timerframe) on the main markets I follow. You are still in time to subscribe. The newsletter typically includes: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, my FibStalker View on Currencies focusing on Forex pairs, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

If you want to receive such videos, please subscribe my free newsletter.

Thank you in advance for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great evening.

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Filed under English language, Futures, S&P mini futures setups and trades, Trading Plan

Past (March 11th, 2013) Trading Plan for the Euro (English Language)

Hello Traders,

I am publishing the trading plan for the Euro I have shared on March the 11th, to my newsletter subscribers (published in the last mid-week update, you can see an example here) . I update this plan every evening from Sunday to Thursday in my free Newsletter. Notice that price projections you will find hereunder are not from/to random levels and do not follow Elliot Wave, DiNapoli levels or other methods, but rather a proprietary Trading Method based on the observation of the effects of Program and Algorithmic Trading on price (see David Halsey’s work).

‘The Euro FX futures is still in measured moves lower on the daily chart. The last setup had resistance and short entry around the 1.3170 level with a stop above 1.3205 which was never hit. The first target in the 1.2950 area was only hit yesterday. Those who though the BCE rally was the start of the move higher of the Euro were mistaken (of course Fitch downgrading Italy was already ‘known’ the day of the BCE rally). Please also review the Euro FX currency futures video-analysis and forecast for Monday, March 11th 2013.

Picture – “Trading plan for the Euro moving forward: a move down into the 1.3200 level and then 1.2900 (4-hour chart) –  March 10th, 2013″

If we consider the 1.2950 first target hit on Friday we have two possibilities now. At the beginning of the week we could rally into the 1.3040 area (or even higher breaking the 1.3065) level and then come back into the 1.2900 support; or,price could just keep moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. Hereunder are the two scenarios (refer to the above picture):

Scenario 1. Price does not trade the next traditional short at the 1.3040 area, but just keeps moving lower into the 1.2900 area of support. We could witness participation in the 1.2900 from professionals and Program Trading.

Scenario 2. If the Euro gets a bid on Monday price could move higher into the 1.3040 area or above and then resume the move lower into the 1.2900 area. In the 1.2900 area or slightly below it we could witness participation from professionals and Program Trading.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.’

I send a free Newsletter from Sunday to  Thursdays along with other information. Tonight I am going to send the Sunday’s issue offering a long-term view (weekly timerframe) on the main markets I follow. You are still in time to subscribe. The newsletter typically includes: a weekly review for the Euro-Dollar cross, my FibStalker View on Currencies focusing on Forex pairs, articles on my trading method, market commentaries and HFT/Program Trading. Please, register here to receive the free weekly newsletter.

If you like this article, please share it with your friends and fellow traders. Thank you.

If you want to receive such videos, please subscribe my free newsletter.

Thank you in advance for subscribing should you decide to do so. Lots of other people are doing the same.

Should you decide to operate based on this information you are invited to do your own due diligence, consult a registered trading professional, as well as, understand the risks involved. This information is for educational purpose only. Please read the Disclaimer and accept all involved risks.

Have a great evening.

Leave a comment

Filed under English language, Euro FX setups and trades, Trading Plan